Matas Buzelis Is Growing - But Is It Enough to Spark a True Sophomore Leap?
There’s no denying Matas Buzelis has taken a step forward in Year 2. The numbers back that up.
But for a Bulls team still searching for stability - and an identity - his development is unfolding in a complicated context. His sophomore season is less about a breakout and more about a balancing act: growing into a larger role without losing what made him effective in the first place.
On paper, the progress is real. Buzelis has gone from a rotational rookie averaging 8.6 points and 3.5 rebounds to a full-time starter putting up 13.6 points and 5.5 boards in just over 28 minutes per game.
He’s also made strides defensively, upping his blocks per game from 0.9 to 1.4. That’s not nothing - especially for a 6-foot-8 forward still learning the physical demands of NBA defense.
But if you watched Sunday’s loss to the Pelicans - a game where the Bulls coughed up a fourth-quarter lead at home - you saw the other side of the story. Buzelis played nearly 24 minutes but attempted just five shots, his lowest total of the season.
He made three of them for nine points, but the lack of offensive involvement was hard to ignore. It wasn’t just a quiet night - it felt like a disappearing act.
So where is Buzelis in his development arc? Is this the leap we were waiting for, or just a step on the way?
Let’s start with the role change. Transitioning from a bench contributor to a starter is no small thing.
It’s not just more minutes - it’s more responsibility, more attention from opposing defenses, and more pressure to produce consistently. And for Buzelis, that transition has come with some growing pains.
He’s still figuring out how to assert himself offensively. Per NBA tracking data, over half of his shots (51%) come without a dribble, and 35.7% of those are from deep.
That tells us he’s mostly operating as a spot-up shooter or off-ball cutter - not someone creating his own looks. Of his 263 total shot attempts this season, 111 have come from beyond the arc, and 128 have been at the rim within five feet.
The midrange? Practically nonexistent.
That’s not necessarily a bad thing - especially in Billy Donovan’s system, which doesn’t prioritize midrange looks - but it does highlight the limitations in Buzelis’ current offensive game.
Right now, he’s not a shot creator. And that’s a problem when defenses start keying in on the Bulls’ guards and daring others to beat them.
Buzelis has shown flashes - he’s got the length, the athleticism, and the touch - but he hasn’t yet shown the confidence or consistency to take over possessions. His handle is still loose under pressure, and his slender frame doesn’t always hold up when he attacks downhill.
That’s led to some shaky moments, including an uptick in turnovers (1.9 per game) as he tries to do more.
It doesn’t help that he’s often sharing the floor with three guards, which can leave him standing in the corner or cutting without much purpose. The spacing gets tight.
The touches get scarce. And when he does get the ball, it’s often in low-leverage situations - not the kind of reps that help a young player grow into a go-to option.
The advanced numbers paint a similar picture. According to Cleaning the Glass, the Bulls are scoring 3.9 points fewer per 100 possessions when Buzelis is on the floor.
That’s not entirely on him - Chicago’s roster construction is a puzzle that still doesn’t quite fit - but it shows that his presence isn’t yet lifting the team’s offense. And while he’s taking more threes, he’s hitting just 32.4% of them, down from 36.1% last season.
Both his catch-and-shoot and pull-up percentages have dipped below 34%, which suggests he’s not making defenses pay when they leave him open.
This isn’t to say Buzelis is regressing. Far from it.
He’s playing more, defending better, and taking on tougher assignments. He’s closing games and logging meaningful minutes in high-leverage situations.
That matters. But the leap - the one that turns a promising young piece into a foundational player - still feels incomplete.
And to be fair, he’s not operating in the most forgiving environment. The Bulls are 10-15, struggling to find rhythm on both ends of the floor, and still figuring out how to maximize the pieces they have.
It’s not the ideal setup for a young forward trying to expand his game. So while Buzelis’ limitations are real, so are the circumstances he’s navigating.
The potential is still there. You can see it in his defensive instincts, his flashes of rim protection, and the occasional scoring burst that hints at something more. But right now, he’s more role player than rising star - a guy learning what it takes to impact the game as a starter in the NBA.
Is the leap coming? Maybe. But for now, it’s a slow climb - not a breakout.