Dean Oliver’s latest look at the Bulls paints a blunt picture: too much of Chicago’s roster simply hasn’t been good enough, no matter who’s on the other side.
Oliver, the basketball analytics pioneer now working as a data scientist at ESPN, posted an analysis on social media that broke down select Bulls players by how they performed against different tiers of NBA competition. The chart was built around his Net Points per 100 Possessions metric and appeared to reflect the 2025-26 NBA regular season.
His post pointed to a mixed bag at best. “Jones pretty steady and solid. A few guys steady and bad
- Giddey struggled vs Really Good teams
- Smith's +5.6 vs Really Good is a smaller sample pic.twitter.com/lPbbVZQ7HL”
The bigger issue, though, is the one that jumps off the page: a lot of the Bulls were bad across the board.
That’s where Bryson Graham’s work comes into the picture. Chicago’s lead front office executive has already started trimming away some of the pieces that Oliver’s numbers flagged as problematic against strong or really good opponents. Center Guerson Yabusele is gone, and so is guard Anfernee Simons.
Yabusele has agreed to a three-year deal with Panathinaikos, while Collin Sexton is headed to the Los Angeles Lakers on a two-year, $19 million contract. Sexton’s exit leaves behind a what-if for Chicago, especially after he put up the highest three-point volume of his NBA career during his 26-game run with the Bulls after the trade deadline - 5.2 attempts per game at a 41.0% clip.
That still leaves the Bulls with plenty to sort through, and Oliver’s numbers make the conversation unavoidable.
Matas Buzelis is one of the most important names in that discussion. The expectations were already rising for him entering his 2025-26 season, but the year didn’t fully match the buzz his size and highlight plays had built over his first two NBA seasons. Oliver’s data suggests there’s still a long climb ahead if Buzelis is going to take the kind of leap that would justify a Bulls extension and keep things from turning into a restricted free agency battle in the summer of 2028.
Then there are the players whose problems are harder to miss. Oliver’s math backs up what Bulls fans likely saw with their own eyes all season: Isaac Okoro and Rob Dillingham were not effective against any level of competition.
For Chicago, the path forward seems obvious in the source reporting. Okoro should be moved for whatever value the Bulls can get back, simply to free up his salary and roster spot for more shooting around the team’s rookies and Josh Giddey. Dillingham’s case is even cleaner: the Bulls should decline his team option and let him reach 2027 NBA free agency.
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