As the Chicago Bulls' season winds down, it's been a whirlwind of headlines. From a carousel of lineups over the last 20 games to speculation about Billy Donovan's future with the team, and now the decision to part ways with Jaden Ivey due to his social media activity, it's been a tumultuous stretch.
With seven games left, the Bulls are eyeing a chance to end this challenging 2025-26 campaign on a different note. But there's more at stake than just the games themselves; the race for draft lottery positioning with the Milwaukee Bucks is heating up.
Bulls vs. Bucks: The Draft Lottery Duel
The Bulls haven't had much luck against the Bucks recently, losing 18 of their last 27 matchups since 2021. This includes a tough first-round playoff exit in 2023.
However, there's a silver lining for Arturas Karnisovas' squad. As the season nears its end, the Bulls hold a slim .5-game advantage over the Bucks in the draft lottery standings, sitting at 29-46 compared to Milwaukee's 29-45.
This slight edge could translate into significantly better odds for a top draft pick.
The Bulls have the easiest remaining schedule in the NBA, facing teams like the Indiana Pacers and Washington Wizards. Yet, they're still giving maximum minutes to players like Matas Buzelis and Josh Giddey, resisting the urge to fully embrace a tanking strategy. Swapping positions with Giannis Antetokounmpo's squad could have major implications for their summer plans.
Why One Spot Matters
The difference between the ninth and tenth spot in the draft lottery is substantial. Holding the ninth-worst record gives Chicago a 20.2% chance of landing in the top four.
In contrast, Milwaukee's tenth spot offers just a 13.9% chance, a significant 32% drop. If the Bucks miss the top four, their best-case scenario is the 10th pick, with a 65.9% likelihood of selecting there and an 86.1% chance of picking between 10 and 12.
For the Bulls, the ninth spot means their ceiling outside the top four is the ninth pick, with a 50.7% chance of drafting there and a 79.6% probability of selecting between nine and eleven.
These odds highlight the critical nature of the Bulls' remaining games. Will Karnisovas and Donovan make the strategic decision to rest key players and secure the best possible draft position, or will they push for wins that could jeopardize their lottery odds? The next few games will be telling.