Connor Bedard is only entering his fourth NHL season, and the Stanley Cup still sits out of reach. The Blackhawks winger has not played in the postseason yet, and Chicago’s path back to contention now leans heavily on him after the franchise’s old core of Marian Hossa, Duncan Keith and Jonathan Toews is long gone.
That’s the reality. The history around it is even starker.
Since the NHL Draft started in 1963, only 19 of the 64 players taken first overall have gone on to win a Stanley Cup. That works out to 29.7 percent. And for those who did make it, the wait usually wasn’t short - the average first-overall winner took 8.1 seasons to get there.
That puts Bedard in a familiar spot for a generational prospect: huge expectations, but no guarantee that the ring comes quickly.
Patrick Kane is one of the best examples of how fast it can happen. In 2010, he scored the overtime goal that delivered the Blackhawks’ first Stanley Cup since 1961.
It came in his third NHL season, making him the third-fastest first overall pick to reach the top. Only Guy Lafleur and Rejean Houle got there sooner, each winning in their second season.
The full list shows just how varied the road can be. Sidney Crosby won in four seasons.
Marc-Andre Fleury did it in five. Vincent Lecavalier needed six.
Mario Lemieux and Denis Potvin both waited seven. Nathan MacKinnon and Bobby Smith each got there in nine, while Aaron Ekblad, Mike Modano, Rick Green and Rob Ramage all reached the Cup within 10 or 11 seasons.
Steven Stamkos won in 12. Alex Ovechkin finally got his in 13.
Erik Johnson waited 14. Taylor Hall needed 16.
The other side of the story is just as important: most first overall picks never win it at all. Of the 45 who didn’t, only six made the Hockey Hall of Fame - Joe Thornton, Eric Lindros, Mats Sundin, Pierre Turgeon, Dale Hawerchuk and Gilbert Perreault.
And even that group had mixed postseason luck. Sundin and Turgeon never reached the Stanley Cup Final. Perreault lost in 1975, Lindros in 1997, Hawerchuk in 2010 and Thornton in 2016.
There are 22 active first overall picks in the league in 2026, including Bedard. Fourteen of them have never had a shot at the Stanley Cup, among them Gavin McKenna, Matthew Schaefer, Macklin Celebrini, Juraj Slafkovsky, Owen Power, Alexis Lafreniere, Jack Hughes, Rasmus Dahlin, Nico Hischier, Auston Matthews, Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and John Tavares. Of that group, only McDavid and Nugent-Hopkins have played in the Final, losing in 2024 and 2025.
Bedard is still early in the process, and history says that alone doesn’t mean much. The first-overall label brings status, not a shortcut. If he eventually gets to the top, he’ll join a small club of top picks who turned that draft-night promise into a championship.
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