Are the Blackhawks for Real? Chicago’s Rebuild Might Be Turning a Corner Sooner Than Expected
Let’s be honest-few saw this coming. Heading into the 2025-26 season, most projections had the Chicago Blackhawks firmly in the mix for another high lottery pick.
But here we are, a third of the way through the season, and Chicago is sitting just one point shy of a wildcard spot. That’s not just progress-it’s a signal that something might be starting to click on the West Side.
So, what’s driving this unexpected surge? It starts with Connor Bedard, who’s been everything the franchise hoped for and more.
The 2023 No. 1 overall pick is putting together a breakout campaign that’s not just exciting-it’s impactful. He’s not just putting up highlight-reel goals; he’s dragging the Blackhawks into the playoff conversation with him.
But Bedard isn’t doing it alone. Chicago’s defensive unit has tightened up, and the goaltending has held steady-two areas that were major question marks coming into the season. That combination has helped the Blackhawks post an 11-9-5 record, a mark that puts them ahead of last year’s Presidents’ Trophy winners, the Winnipeg Jets, and just behind playoff mainstays like the Edmonton Oilers.
Still, the numbers don’t seem to love them. According to the latest projections, Chicago has just a 35.7% chance of making the playoffs.
That’s a significant jump from preseason expectations, but it still lags behind teams with similar or even identical records. The Utah Mammoth, for example, have the same number of points (27) but are pegged at 42.3% to make the postseason.
Meanwhile, the Anaheim Ducks-who lead the Pacific Division-are sitting at 84%, a sign that the models believe Anaheim’s early-season success is sustainable.
So what gives? Why aren’t the odds buying into the Blackhawks just yet?
Some of it likely comes down to perception. This is a team just one year removed from picking at the top of the draft.
They’re still wearing the label of a rebuilding franchise, and that kind of tag doesn’t fade easily. Algorithms and analysts alike tend to lean on recent history, and last year’s struggles are still fresh in the data.
But if you’re watching the games, it’s clear this version of the Blackhawks is different. They’re playing with more structure, more confidence, and more bite.
The young core is starting to gel, and the veterans are doing just enough to stabilize the ship. It’s not perfect, but it’s progress-and it’s happening faster than expected.
Even if Chicago doesn’t punch a playoff ticket this spring, that doesn’t mean this season won’t be a turning point. The rebuild timeline is right on track, maybe even ahead of schedule. Teams like the Ducks, Sharks, and Red Wings are all on similar trajectories, and Chicago is keeping pace-if not quietly pulling ahead.
Take a look at the Utah Mammoth last year. In their inaugural season, they came out of nowhere to push for a playoff spot.
They didn’t quite make it, but they laid the foundation for what’s become a legitimate postseason push this year. That could be the Blackhawks’ blueprint.
A strong, competitive season-even if it ends just short-can be the kind of leap that sets up a real playoff run next year.
The big question now is staying power. Can the Blackhawks keep this up over the long grind of an 82-game season?
We’ll find out in the coming months. But for now, Chicago fans have something they haven’t had in a while: meaningful hockey in December-and a team that’s starting to believe in itself.