The Blackhawks’ season has had no shortage of storylines, but one that’s flown a bit under the radar - at least outside of Chicago - is the emergence of Alex Vlasic and Louis Crevier as the so-called “shutdown” defensive pairing. It’s a title that sounds great on paper, but the numbers tell a more nuanced story.
Vlasic (a 2019 second-rounder) and Crevier (a 2020 seventh-round pick) have been leaned on heavily this season. At 24 years old, both have logged the most 5-on-5 ice time of any Blackhawks defensive pairing - over 514 minutes together.
That’s a big workload, and they’re not exactly being eased into it. Their offensive zone start percentage sits at just 37.74%, meaning they’re regularly deployed in tough, defense-first situations.
So how have they fared? Let’s dig into the numbers.
Possession Metrics (5-on-5 with Vlasic and Crevier on ice):
- Shot attempts (Corsi): 49.01% (469 for, 488 against)
- Shots on goal: 47.26% (207 for, 231 against)
- Scoring chances: 47.71% (219 for, 240 against)
- High-danger chances: 42.55% (80 for, 108 against)
- Expected goals: 44.81% (19.55 for, 24.07 against)
- Actual goals: 39.13% (18 for, 28 against)
Those numbers are below the 50% mark across the board, which might raise some eyebrows. But context matters.
When you’re starting in the defensive zone nearly two-thirds of the time, you’re naturally going to be chasing the puck more than dictating play. So the real question becomes: How do these numbers stack up against the rest of the team?
Relative to Team Averages:
- Corsi: +2.86% above team rate
- Shot share: +2.10%
- Scoring chances: +3.47%
- High-danger chances: +0.25%
- Expected goals: +0.31%
- Goal share: -6.82%
That last stat - the actual goals scored while they’re on the ice - is the one outlier in an otherwise respectable set of numbers. It’s a reminder that while they’re helping the team control play a bit better than average in tough minutes, they’re still getting burned on the scoreboard more often than you’d like.
So, is this pairing truly “shutting down” opponents? Not quite - at least not in the way that term typically implies. And when you compare them to another Blackhawks pairing with a similar role, the picture becomes even clearer.
Enter: Wyatt Kaiser and Connor Murphy
This duo has seen about 300 fewer minutes together at 5-on-5 (219:47), but their zone starts are just as tough (38.14% offensive zone starts). Let’s put the numbers side by side:
| Stat | Vlasic/Crevier | Kaiser/Murphy |
|---|
| Corsi For % | 49.01% | 52.00% | | Shots For % | 47.26% | 49.68% |
| Scoring Chances For % | 47.71% | 49.64% | | High-Danger Chances For % | 42.55% | 49.15% |
| Expected Goals For % | 44.81% | 49.15% | | Goals For % | 39.13% | 46.67% |
Across the board, Kaiser and Murphy are outperforming Vlasic and Crevier - and not by a slim margin. They’re suppressing shots and chances more effectively, and they’re giving up fewer goals while doing it.
Let’s break it down further by looking at what opponents are generating per 60 minutes of ice time:
| Stat | Vlasic/Crevier | Kaiser/Murphy |
|---|
| Shot Attempts Against (CA/60) | 56.91 | 42.59 | | Shots on Goal Against (SA/60) | 26.94 | 21.57 |
| Scoring Chances Against (SCA/60) | 27.99 | 19.11 | | High-Danger Chances Against (HDCA/60) | 12.6 | 8.19 |
| Expected Goals Against (xGA/60) | 2.81 | 1.83 | | Goals Against (GA/60) | 3.27 | 2.18 |
Those are significant gaps. Kaiser and Murphy are simply doing a better job of limiting the opposition - fewer shots, fewer dangerous looks, and fewer goals against.
And while goaltending can always skew these numbers, the save percentage difference between the two pairings isn’t drastic (.879 with Vlasic/Crevier vs. .899 with Kaiser/Murphy). You could argue that the better defensive play is helping the goalies, not the other way around.
What Does This Mean for Vlasic and Crevier?
This isn’t a write-off of their futures. Vlasic is signed through 2030 and has shown enough to suggest he’ll be part of the Blackhawks’ long-term plans.
He’s mobile, rangy, and still developing. Crevier, meanwhile, is more of a question mark.
He’s played in just over half of Chicago’s games this season and hasn’t quite established himself as a regular top-four option.
Both players turn 25 later this year, which doesn’t mean they can’t improve, but the window for big developmental leaps is starting to close. Right now, only one of them - Vlasic - looks like a potential long-term piece in a top-four role.
The Bigger Picture
If the Blackhawks are going to build a contender again, they’ll need a true shutdown pairing that can tilt the ice against top competition. Based on what we’ve seen this season, that pairing isn’t Vlasic and Crevier. In fact, it might already be Kaiser and Murphy.
That’s not a knock on effort or potential - it’s just what the numbers are telling us. The “shutdown” label carries weight, and right now, it belongs elsewhere on the Chicago blue line.