Tyson Bagent’s first start in place of Caleb Williams gave the Bears a win over the New York Jets in Week 4, but it also came with plenty of warning signs. He was picked off once, and that came on the Jets’ first interception since Aaron Glenn became head coach last year. Even more troubling for Chicago, Bagent had four other throws wiped out by New York penalties - mistakes that could have turned a good afternoon into a disaster.
He finished 25 of 34 for 268 yards and one interception, while adding one yard on four carries. That kind of looseness can survive against the right opponent. Against Green Bay, it could get ugly fast.
The Packers come into Week 5 with plenty of issues of their own. Their run game has disappeared, the passing offense has been uneven, the pass rush hasn’t done enough, and injuries have thinned out the defense.
All of that has the look of a team drifting toward a full reset. But one part of the roster has held up: the pass defense.
Green Bay ranks fourth in the league against the pass, giving up 185 yards per game. The Packers are also tied for second in turnovers created with four, and they’ve piled up 13 pass deflections.
Safety Evan Williams has been a major part of that, with four breakups, while Keisean Nixon has three. Williams has played at a high level through the opening stretch, earning the fourth-best Pro Football Focus grade among NFL safeties at 82.4 after allowing a passer rating of just 64.6.
That’s the kind of secondary that can punish a quarterback who gets careless. Bagent has to be sharper than he was against the Jets, where he forced too many throws and got away with it because New York was even sloppier. Green Bay won’t be nearly as forgiving.
The Packers’ back end can make life difficult in a hurry, especially with Williams patrolling the deep part of the field and jumping routes or knocking passes away. That puts the pressure on Bagent to think through every throw instead of trying to win the game with aggression alone.
If Chicago wants to keep things under control, the short passing game has to do some heavy lifting. The Bears need to look for favorable matchups for Colston Loveland or Cole Kmet against Green Bay’s depleted linebackers, unless Williams is the one matched up with the tight ends. In that case, the smarter play is to stay away from them.
Kalif Raymond could also be part of the answer. He was quiet in Week 4 after leading the Bears in receiving over the first three weeks, but working him from the slot could open up easy completions in the five- to eight-yard range and create room for bigger plays.
And above all, Chicago can lean on the ground game. D'Andre Swift should be central to the plan, with Kyle Monangai a possible factor if he’s healthy enough to go. The Bears have an elite rushing attack, and that’s the best way to attack a Packers front seven that has struggled.
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Thomas, Kmet and Kyler Gordon all fit the profile of players who could tilt a tight rivalry game if they give the Bears more than they have so far. The Packers kick return unit has been a strength, which only raises the importance of Chicago making its depth count in coverage and in the middle of the field, even if some of those contributions are still more projection than certainty. [Read more 🡒]