Caleb Williams just wrapped up one of the most statistically impressive seasons a Chicago Bears quarterback has ever had - and that’s not hyperbole. He set a new single-season franchise record with 3,942 passing yards, added 27 touchdowns, and kept his interceptions down to just seven.
That’s a strong year by any measure. But if you’re wondering why it didn’t generate more buzz across the league, look no further than one number: 58.1%.
That was Williams’ completion rate in 2025, and it’s been the main sticking point in evaluating his rookie campaign.
The issue isn’t talent - Williams has that in spades. It’s about consistency, particularly on the throws that don’t make the highlight reel. And that’s where Hall of Fame coach and longtime NBC analyst Tony Dungy sees the next step in Williams’ evolution.
“I thought Caleb made some big-time improvements,” Dungy said in a recent interview. “And I think he’s still got a little ways to go.
He’s making the spectacular plays, and I think Ben is getting him to make those ordinary plays more consistently. And when he does that - and he’s making those ordinary plays at a 90 percent pitch - and then can give you that fourth-down unbelievable rainbow, then he is going to be unstoppable.”
That’s the blueprint. The jaw-dropping throws - the off-platform lasers, the deep sideline dots, the scramble drills that turn into touchdowns - those are already there. But the best quarterbacks in the league, the ones who win deep into January, make their money in the intermediate game - that 10-to-19-yard window where timing, touch, and precision matter more than arm strength.
And that’s the area where Williams struggled the most in 2025.
It’s not a matter of arm talent - if anything, it’s the opposite. Williams has such a live arm that he sometimes overpowers throws that require finesse.
It’s like trying to sink a layup with the same force you’d use on a half-court shot. That’s why this offseason, head coach Ben Johnson is putting a spotlight on the fundamentals: footwork, hip rotation, and release point.
Because when those mechanics are off, even a great arm won’t save you - especially in the NFL, where windows close fast and defenders are waiting to pounce on any mistake.
This isn’t unique to Williams. Plenty of elite quarterbacks had to go through the same adjustment period.
Josh Allen struggled with accuracy early in his career before refining his mechanics in Buffalo. Matthew Stafford had similar issues in Detroit.
Even Brett Favre, one of the most naturally gifted throwers the game has ever seen, needed time to figure out how to operate within the structure of a pro offense.
The good news? Williams is already ahead of the curve in several key areas.
He’s poised under pressure. He doesn’t flinch when the pocket collapses.
And he’s got that rare ability to create something out of nothing. But if he can start hitting those intermediate throws with more consistency - getting that completion rate into the mid-60s - the Bears’ offense could take a serious leap next season.
And when someone like Tony Dungy points that out, it’s worth listening. Dungy isn’t just speaking as a TV analyst; he’s someone who’s worked with and learned from some of the best quarterback minds in NFL history - Chuck Noll, Marty Schottenheimer, Dennis Green.
He helped shape Trent Dilfer into a Pro Bowler in Tampa Bay, and later guided Peyton Manning to a Super Bowl title in Indianapolis. He knows what it takes to develop a quarterback from promising to elite.
What he’s saying about Williams is simple but spot-on: the spectacular plays are great - they’re what get you drafted No. 1 overall. But it’s the ordinary ones, the routine completions on second-and-seven, the quick outs on third-and-three, the timing throws over the middle - those are the plays that win championships.
Think of it like basketball. A player who can hit threes and throw down highlight dunks will get fans out of their seats.
But if they can’t knock down a midrange jumper when it counts, they’re not winning much. The same goes for quarterbacks.
Deep bombs are fun, but the best in the game - guys like Mahomes, Burrow, and Herbert - are lethal in that intermediate zone.
Caleb Williams has all the tools. Now it’s about sharpening the ones that don’t always show up on the highlight reel.
If he does, the Bears might finally have their franchise quarterback - not just in terms of talent, but in terms of week-in, week-out efficiency. And that’s when things get scary for the rest of the NFC North.