Cubs Bet on Shelby Miller’s Resilience with Multi-Year Deal Despite Tommy John Surgery
Don’t look now, but Jed Hoyer is starting to show a little more willingness to commit to relievers long-term. For the second time this offseason, the Cubs’ front office has handed out a multi-year deal to a bullpen arm - this time to veteran right-hander Shelby Miller. And while this move won’t pay immediate dividends on the mound, it’s clearly a play for the future.
Miller, 35, underwent Tommy John surgery in October and is expected to miss most - if not all - of the 2026 season. But the Cubs are banking on his recent resurgence and veteran presence paying off once he’s healthy again.
According to reports, Miller’s deal is worth at least $2.5 million over two years, with the potential for additional earnings through incentives once he returns to action in 2027. That’s a calculated gamble by Chicago - one that reflects both confidence in Miller’s ability to bounce back and a broader strategy of building bullpen depth with experienced arms.
Before the injury derailed his 2025 season, Miller was quietly putting together one of the better comeback stories in baseball. He opened the year with the Arizona Diamondbacks and was lights-out early on, posting a 1.98 ERA with 40 strikeouts over 36.1 innings in his first 37 appearances.
That kind of production from a veteran righty made him an attractive trade target, even while he was on the injured list at the deadline. The Milwaukee Brewers saw enough to swing a deal and bring him aboard.
Miller made his Brewers debut on August 9 after a month-long stint on the IL, but something wasn’t right. He made 11 appearances out of the bullpen, but the sharpness wasn’t there.
His final outing came against the Phillies, when he failed to record an out - and that was the end of the line for his 2025 campaign. A second IL stint followed, this time with an elbow strain, and soon after came the news: another Tommy John surgery.
This isn’t Miller’s first time going through the long road back. His initial Tommy John procedure in 2017 limited him to just four starts that season, and his path back to form was anything but linear.
Once a rising star with the Cardinals and an All-Star with the Braves in 2015, Miller’s career took a detour through injuries and inconsistency. From 2013 to 2018, he was a full-time starter, but after the surgery, it took him years to re-establish himself.
Interestingly enough, Miller had a brief stint with the Cubs back in 2021. He only made three appearances before a back strain landed him on the IL.
After a rehab assignment in Triple-A, the Cubs released him on May 31 of that year. At the time, it looked like just another chapter in a once-promising career that had been derailed.
But Miller wasn’t done. In 2023, he re-emerged with the Dodgers and looked the part of a high-leverage reliever again, posting a 1.71 ERA over 42 innings. That performance set the stage for a rollercoaster 2024 with the Tigers, and then his strong showing in 2025 with Arizona before the injury.
Now, the Cubs are giving Miller another shot - and this time, they’re doing it with a little more runway. The deal gives both sides time.
For Miller, it’s a chance to rehab without the pressure of a one-year prove-it deal. For the Cubs, it’s a low-risk investment in a veteran arm who’s shown he can still miss bats and get outs when healthy.
There’s no guarantee how Miller will look in 2027. Coming back from a second Tommy John surgery at age 36 is no small task. But if the version of Miller that showed up in early 2025 and with the Dodgers in 2023 is still in there, the Cubs could have a valuable bullpen piece on their hands.
This is the kind of forward-thinking move that won’t make headlines now but could pay off down the line. For a team looking to build sustained success, it’s about more than just the next game - it’s about positioning yourself for the seasons ahead. And with Miller, the Cubs are betting on a veteran who’s been through the fire and still has something left to give.