If there’s one thing the NFL Draft teaches us year after year, it’s that league evaluations often diverge from media hype. A player might be a consensus top-10 pick among fans and analysts, but that doesn’t always line up with how teams see it.
Sometimes it’s medical red flags. Sometimes it’s off-the-field concerns.
But one factor that doesn’t get talked about enough? Money - and not in the way you might think.
Thanks to the NFL’s rookie wage scale, contracts are slotted by draft position, not by position group. That means whether you’re drafting a quarterback or a safety at No. 10 overall, the contract value is essentially the same. This structure has led to a noticeable trend: teams are less inclined to use premium picks on positions like linebacker or safety, where the value doesn’t always match the cost - at least in the eyes of front offices.
And that’s where things could get interesting for the Chicago Bears.
Ohio State’s Caleb Downs is widely regarded as one of the most complete safety prospects to come out of college in recent memory. He’s got the instincts, the range, and the physicality to be a tone-setter in the back end of a defense. But because he plays safety - a position that’s been devalued at the top of the draft in recent years - there’s a real possibility he could slide further than his talent warrants.
Let’s look at the recent history. No safety has been drafted higher than 11th overall since 2018.
In fact, only one - Kyle Hamilton in 2022 - has even cracked the top 20 in the last six years. That trend could put Downs in play for teams sitting in the mid-to-late first round.
And for a team like the Bears, that’s a window worth watching.
Chicago enters this offseason with a major question mark at safety. All four of their top contributors at the position are set to hit free agency.
There’s no realistic path to bringing them all back. General Manager Ryan Poles will have to find a long-term solution, and the draft is the most cost-effective place to do it.
Downs fits the bill. He’s the kind of high-IQ, high-character player who could anchor a secondary for the next decade.
Comparisons to former All-Pro Eric Berry haven’t come out of nowhere. Berry was a game-changer - and Poles, who was a scout in Kansas City when the Chiefs drafted him, knows exactly what that kind of player looks like.
If he sees shades of Berry in Downs, don’t be surprised if the Bears make a move.
That brings us to the trade-up scenario.
If Downs starts to slide, the Bears could find themselves in striking distance. One team to keep an eye on?
The Dallas Cowboys. They hold picks No. 12 and No. 20 and have a need at safety themselves.
If they pass on Downs at 12, it’s unlikely they’ll let him get past 20. That means if Chicago wants in, they’ll need to get up to at least pick 19 to make it happen.
It’s a gamble, sure - but it’s also the kind of aggressive move that could pay off in a big way. The Bears already have a young, ascending defense.
Adding a player like Downs could elevate the secondary from solid to special. And if Poles believes he’s found his next Eric Berry, the cost to move up might be well worth the reward.