The Chicago Bears are in unfamiliar territory heading into the 2026 NFL Draft. After three straight years picking inside the top 10, they now find themselves sitting at No. 25 overall.
That’s a different kind of challenge for GM Ryan Poles and new head coach Ben Johnson-one that calls for a shift in strategy. The Bears still have clear needs across the roster-left tackle, edge rusher, defensive tackle, and safety-but picking this late in the first round means the board could look very different by the time they’re on the clock.
So how should they approach it? Well, history might offer a clue.
This year’s draft class doesn’t have the quarterback firepower we’ve seen in recent years. Right now, only Fernando Mendoza looks like a lock to go in the first round.
Alabama’s Ty Simpson might sneak in, but that’s far from a sure thing. On the other hand, the defensive side of the ball is loaded.
Every position group on defense is expected to have first-round talent. Sound familiar?
That’s because we’ve seen this script before.
Back in 2022, the draft had a similar profile-light at quarterback, heavy on defense. Only one QB, Kenny Pickett, went in the first round.
And what happened? Teams started getting aggressive in the middle of the first round, trading up to secure top-tier talent before the board thinned out.
Between picks 11 and 27, there were eight trades. Teams that moved up were rewarded more often than not.
Let’s take a look at how those trades panned out:
- Saints at 11: Chris Olave - two 1,000-yard seasons.
- Lions at 12: Jameson Williams - Pro Bowler.
- Eagles at 13: Jordan Davis - key piece in a Super Bowl run.
- Saints again at 19: Trevor Penning - starting left tackle.
- Chiefs at 21: Trent McDuffie - Pro Bowl corner.
- Bills at 23: Kaiir Elam - starter on a playoff defense.
- Jets at 26: Jermaine Johnson II - disruptive edge presence.
- Jaguars at 27: Devin Lloyd - Pro Bowl linebacker.
That’s a strong track record. Most of those teams got impact players who’ve already made their mark.
Meanwhile, teams that traded down in that range? Not so much.
The takeaway here is pretty simple: when quarterback demand is low, there’s a run on other premium positions earlier than usual. Players who might be available at 25 in a QB-heavy year are likely to be long gone by pick 20. That’s the situation the Bears are staring down.
So what’s the move?
Trade up.
This isn’t about collecting more picks or playing it safe. This is about going and getting a player you believe in-someone who can step in and make a difference right away. Whether it’s a cornerstone left tackle, a disruptive edge rusher, or a game-changing defensive back, the Bears need quality over quantity this year.
And here’s the thing: Ryan Poles isn’t afraid to be aggressive. He hasn’t traded up in the first round yet, but he’s come close.
In 2024, he reportedly had to be talked out of moving up to grab Rome Odunze when it looked like the wide receiver might not fall to No. 9.
Last year, the Bears were actively working the phones, trying to move up for Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty. Poles has shown he’s willing to make a move when the right player is in reach.
This year, the cost to move up from No. 25 to the high teens-say, No. 19 or 20-would likely be a fourth-round pick. That’s not a steep price if the player on the board is someone the Bears have graded as a top-15 talent.
Yes, Chicago only has seven picks in this draft, so Poles would need to do some maneuvering to replenish capital. But that’s a problem for Day 3.
On Day 1, the priority should be landing a difference-maker.
The Bears have been building toward this moment. They’ve added foundational pieces in recent years, and they’ve got a roster that’s starting to take shape.
Now it’s about finding the right guy to take them to the next level. Sitting at 25 and hoping your guy falls to you?
That’s not the move this year.
If the board starts to break the way it did in 2022, the Bears need to be ready to pounce. Because in a draft where the top-tier talent at positions of need could vanish quickly, waiting around could mean missing out.
And this team can’t afford to miss.