Caleb Williams' Accuracy Woes Are Real - But History Says There's Hope
There’s no doubt Caleb Williams is showing flashes of the elite talent that made him the No. 1 overall pick. He’s running the Bears’ offense with more command than he did a year ago.
His field vision has taken a step forward, and he’s making better decisions under pressure. And when the play breaks down?
That’s when Williams reminds everyone why he was considered a generational prospect - with off-platform throws and jaw-dropping improvisation that very few quarterbacks can replicate.
But here’s the rub: the accuracy just isn’t there yet.
After Sunday’s loss to Green Bay, Williams’ completion percentage dipped below 58%, and that’s not a number you can simply brush off. This isn’t just a case of dropped passes or tight windows.
Too many throws are sailing high or missing the mark entirely. And while some of that can be chalked up to rookie growing pains, it’s become enough of a trend to raise legitimate concern.
Is Accuracy Fixable?
That’s the million-dollar question - and it’s one that’s followed quarterbacks for decades. Some evaluators believe accuracy is an innate trait: you either have it or you don’t.
Others argue it can be developed with better mechanics and footwork. In Williams’ case, there’s reason to believe it’s the latter.
One long-time NFL evaluator recently shared that Williams does have natural accuracy - it’s just being masked by mechanical issues. His footwork, in particular, is too inconsistent.
That’s leading to poor weight distribution and, ultimately, balls that float or miss their target. It’s not that he doesn’t know where to go with the ball.
It’s that his body isn’t always cooperating.
But here’s where things get interesting: Williams may actually have an advantage when it comes to fixing these issues - his athleticism.
Why Athleticism Matters
The theory is that more athletic quarterbacks are better equipped to rewire their mechanics. Because they’re not locked into years of muscle memory from throwing the same way since high school, they’re more adaptable. They can retrain their footwork, tweak their motion, and adjust on the fly in ways that more rigid, traditional pocket passers often struggle with.
So, does the data back that up? Let’s take a look.
A History of Athletic Quarterbacks Getting More Accurate
A deep dive into some of the most athletic quarterbacks in NFL history shows a clear trend: their accuracy improved significantly as their careers progressed.
- Fran Tarkenton First half: 53.9% Second half: 59.7%
- Randall Cunningham First half: 55.4% Second half: 58.6%
- Steve Young First half: 58% Second half: 66.6%
- Steve McNair First half: 57.6% Second half: 61.9%
- Michael Vick First half: 53.8% Second half: 59%
- Donovan McNabb First half: 58.3% Second half: 59.6%
- Russell Wilson First half: 64.2% Second half: 65.2%*
(*Still an active player, but the trend holds.)
Every single one of these quarterbacks saw their completion percentage climb, some by five or six full points - a massive leap in NFL terms. And these weren’t just marginal improvements. In several cases, they went from inconsistent to elite-level accurate.
Modern Examples Reinforce the Trend
The trend doesn’t stop with the older generation. Today’s stars like Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson have followed similar arcs.
- Josh Allen First four seasons: 62.3% Now: 65.6%
- Lamar Jackson Early career: 64.1% Now: 65.3%
Both came into the league with questions about their accuracy. Both put in the work, refined their mechanics, and turned those weaknesses into strengths.
What This Means for Williams
So what does all this mean for Caleb Williams? It means the story isn’t written yet.
Yes, his accuracy needs work. Yes, the footwork has to improve.
But if history is any guide - and it usually is - there’s every reason to believe he can get there.
Williams has the tools. He’s got the arm, the mobility, the vision, and the playmaking instincts that can’t be taught.
What he needs now is time, coaching, and a commitment to the details. If he stays locked in on refining his mechanics, especially from the ground up, his accuracy can - and likely will - improve.
It won’t happen overnight. But the blueprint is there.
The quarterbacks who came before him proved it’s possible. Now it’s on Williams to follow that path.
And if he does? The Bears may have something truly special on their hands.