Caleb Williams Leads Early MVP Buzz for 2026 - And It’s Not Just Hype
Matthew Stafford finally checked the last box on his Hall of Fame résumé in 2025, capturing the NFL MVP at age 38. It was a razor-thin win - edging out Patriots rookie Drake Maye by a single vote - the closest race the league has seen in over two decades.
And in hindsight, it feels like the right call. Maye’s Super Bowl performance left plenty to be desired, while Stafford capped off a stellar season with the kind of consistency and leadership voters love.
But with the 2025 season now in the books, the focus shifts to 2026 - and the MVP conversation is already heating up. One name is generating more betting action than anyone else: Caleb Williams.
Yes, the Chicago Bears’ young quarterback is currently the most bet-on player to win next season’s MVP, with odds sitting at +1500. That means a $1,000 bet would net you $15,000 if he pulls it off. It’s a number that reflects both the challenge and the very real possibility.
Why Williams Is Already in the MVP Mix
Let’s be clear - Caleb Williams didn’t exactly sneak up on anyone. His rookie season was electric.
He threw for 3,942 yards, totaled 30 touchdowns, and kept his interceptions to just seven. He led seven fourth-quarter comebacks, including a clutch postseason rally against the Packers.
That’s not just impressive for a rookie - that’s elite quarterbacking under pressure.
And yet, the MVP bar is high. Quarterbacks don’t win the award just by being good.
They have to be dominant. Just look at the last five MVP winners:
- Matthew Stafford (2025): 4,707 yards, 46 TDs, 8 INTs
- Josh Allen (2024): 3,731 yards, 40 total TDs, 6 INTs
- Lamar Jackson (2023): 3,678 yards, 29 total TDs, 7 INTs
- Patrick Mahomes (2022): 5,250 yards, 45 total TDs, 12 INTs
- Aaron Rodgers (2021): 4,115 yards, 37 TDs, 4 INTs
There’s a clear pattern: 4,000+ yards, near or above 40 total touchdowns, and single-digit interceptions. That’s the neighborhood Williams needs to move into if he wants serious MVP consideration.
Can He Get There?
Historically, the Bears haven’t exactly been a quarterback factory. No Chicago QB has ever thrown for 4,000 yards in a season.
Not one. And 30 passing touchdowns?
Also untouched territory. But if there’s ever been a guy to break that mold, it’s Caleb Williams.
He already has the arm talent, mobility, and poise under pressure. What he needs now is refinement - and a little help from his surroundings.
Enter Ben Johnson, the Bears’ head coach and offensive architect. Johnson is one of the brightest minds in the league, and what he accomplished with Williams in their first season together was impressive. Now, with a full offseason to build, tweak, and expand the playbook, the potential for a second-year leap is real.
And let’s not overlook the supporting cast. Colston Loveland is blossoming into a dynamic threat at tight end.
Luther Burden showed flashes of big-play ability. And with Rome Odunze and **D.J.
Moore** expected to be fully healthy, the Bears are suddenly looking like a team with a legitimate arsenal. That’s a group that can help Williams inflate the stat sheet in a hurry.
One key area of growth? Completion percentage.
If Williams can bump his accuracy up to around 65% - roughly league average - his yardage and touchdown numbers will naturally rise. With his ability to protect the ball and extend plays, that kind of improvement could push him firmly into MVP territory.
Chasing Bears History
If Williams does win MVP, he wouldn’t just be making personal history - he’d be making franchise history. The Bears have had exactly one MVP in the award’s nearly 70-year existence: the legendary Walter Payton in 1977.
That season, “Sweetness” racked up 1,852 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns in just 14 games, including a flu-ridden 275-yard masterpiece against Minnesota. It was a campaign for the ages.
Since then? Crickets.
Plenty of great defenders. A few Pro Bowlers.
But no one who’s come close to MVP status - especially not at quarterback.
But that’s what makes this moment so intriguing. For the first time in decades, the Bears have a quarterback who doesn’t just have talent - he has MVP-caliber potential.
The infrastructure is finally in place. The coach.
The weapons. The momentum.
And most importantly, the quarterback.
If Caleb Williams can stay healthy, continue developing, and take that next step statistically, he won’t just be in the MVP conversation - he might just be the one leading it.
And if he pulls it off, he’ll join Walter Payton in one of the most exclusive clubs in Chicago sports history.