With just eight teams left standing, the road to Super Bowl LX at Levi’s Stadium is heating up-and if last week was any indication, home-field advantage might be more myth than guarantee. Four of the six Wild Card games were won by the visitors, with only the Bears and Patriots holding serve at home.
Still, don’t discount the top seeds just yet. Denver, Seattle, New England, and Chicago are a combined 28-8 at home this season, including the playoffs.
Let’s break down what’s ahead in the Divisional Round.
Saturday, Jan. 17
Buffalo Bills (13-5) at Denver Broncos (14-3)
This is a rematch with some unfinished business.
Last year, Denver jumped out to a 7-0 lead in the Wild Card round-only to watch Buffalo rip off 31 unanswered points in a dominant comeback. Now, the Broncos are back in the driver’s seat as the AFC’s top seed for the first time since their Super Bowl 50 run in 2015.
Denver’s defense has been a force all season, especially against the run-they allowed the second-fewest rushing yards in the league. That’s a major contrast to Buffalo, which gave up the fifth-most.
But the real spotlight will be on Denver’s pass rush. With an NFL-high 68 sacks, they’ve made life miserable for opposing quarterbacks all year.
The question is: can they do the same to Josh Allen?
Allen’s coming off a gritty performance in Jacksonville, where he led a comeback win. He’s dangerous when the pocket breaks down, but if Denver’s edge rushers can collapse the pocket and keep him contained, the Bills could be in for a long afternoon in the thin air of Mile High.
San Francisco 49ers (13-5) at Seattle Seahawks (14-3)
Get ready for Round 3.
These NFC West rivals know each other well, and for the second straight game, Seattle faces Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers. The previous two meetings this season were low-scoring slugfests-just 46 combined points between them.
Interestingly, the road team has taken the last four in this series, and the Niners have won four straight in Seattle, including a 17-13 win back in Week 1. That’s not the kind of trend the Seahawks want to see heading into a high-stakes matchup.
Quarterback Sam Darnold is looking to shake off the ghosts of last year’s playoff debut, where he was sacked nine times and turned the ball over twice against the Rams. He’s accounted for 20 of Seattle’s 28 turnovers this season, and against a defense as disciplined as San Francisco’s, that margin for error is razor-thin.
Seattle’s defense will need to keep this one close, because if Darnold’s forced into a shootout, history suggests it could get away from them quickly.
Sunday, Jan. 18
Houston Texans (13-5) at New England Patriots (15-3)
The Texans are back in Foxborough, where they finally broke through last season with a 41-21 win-ending a seven-game losing streak in New England that included playoff defeats in 2012 and 2016. Now, they’re aiming for their first-ever trip to the AFC Championship Game.
Houston’s defense stole the show last week, scoring twice while the offense sputtered. That kind of opportunistic play might be exactly what they need again, especially if they can get after Patriots rookie quarterback Drake Maye. Maye was sacked five times and coughed up two turnovers against the Chargers, and now he’s facing a Texans pass rush led by Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter.
The Patriots are battle-tested and have been tough at home all year, but this matchup feels like it could hinge on who blinks first. If Houston’s defense can rattle Maye early, the Texans might just punch their ticket to uncharted territory.
Los Angeles Rams (13-5) at Chicago Bears (12-6)
This one has some old-school vibes.
The last time these two met in the postseason? The 1985 NFC Championship Game.
Fast forward to today, and both teams come in with something to prove.
The Rams’ defense has been suspect down the stretch, giving up 198 points over their last seven games-that’s nearly 28 points per outing. That’s not the kind of trend you want heading into Soldier Field in January.
Chicago, meanwhile, has been a fourth-quarter machine. Rookie quarterback Caleb Williams and offensive coordinator Ben Johnson have dialed up 466 points this season-179 of those coming in the fourth quarter and overtime. That’s not just clutch; that’s elite late-game execution.
If the Rams can’t tighten things up defensively, Williams and company have shown they’re more than capable of closing the door late. This could be a high-wire act from start to finish, but don’t be surprised if it’s the Bears who land the final punch.
Bottom Line:
The Divisional Round is always where the contenders separate from the pretenders.
With battle-tested defenses, emerging quarterbacks, and a few revenge narratives baked in, this weekend has all the makings of a classic. Buckle up-Super Bowl LX is getting closer, and the path there is anything but predictable.