The NFC North is still a knife fight, but the Chicago Bears are sitting in the best position to take control of it. Entering Week 9 of the 2026 season, Minnesota leads the way at 6-1, Chicago is right behind at 6-2, Detroit sits at 5-2, and Green Bay is hanging in at 5-3.
That crowded race is the backdrop for a second-half forecast that leans hard toward the Bears. After the Jeffery Simmons trade and Chicago’s Week 8 win over the Seattle Seahawks, the case is that the Bears are not just in the mix for the division - they’re built to surge through it. From there, the predictions get bold fast.
One of the biggest calls is that Simmons will end up with more sacks in the second half than Micah Parsons. Simmons already flashed what he can do in a Bears uniform, posting six tackles, one sack, and other insane stats against Seattle.
The defense, as the piece frames it, looks like a different unit with him on the field. Parsons, meanwhile, is back practicing with the Packers for the first time this week since his ACL injury last year, which could open the door to a return.
Even so, the prediction is clear: once Parsons is back, Simmons will still be the more disruptive force off the edge.
Minnesota, despite its 6-1 start, is projected to slide. The Vikings’ loss to the Lions opened the door to a rough stretch, and the concern is that the offense will keep dragging behind a defense that has been the best in the NFL.
Kyler Murray has not delivered the level of production Minnesota was hoping for, and that’s why the forecast has the Vikings stumbling in the second half. Still, the belief is that they can hang around just enough to sneak into the playoffs at 9-8 or 10-7, depending on how the NFC West shakes out.
Detroit’s backfield gets its own stat-line prediction, too. D’Andre Swift currently leads the league with 10 rushing touchdowns, while Jahmyr Gibbs is tied for third with eight.
Gibbs may be on pace for a bigger yardage award conversation, but Swift is the one expected to win the touchdown race on the ground. Kyle Monangai has missed the last four games, which has left Swift in position to keep piling up scores, and the expectation is that he could push all the way to 20 rushing touchdowns by season’s end.
Green Bay, on the other hand, is the team projected to fall apart. Even with Parsons potentially returning and Josh Jacobs working his way back, the Packers are described as uneven and inconsistent on offense.
The schedule doesn’t offer much relief either, with the Patriots, Vikings, and Rams coming up in the next three games, followed later by the Bills, Bears, and Lions. That stretch is enough to fuel the belief that Green Bay could crater late, finish last in the division, and miss the postseason entirely.
As for Chicago, the forecast ends with the Bears winning the NFC North in Week 17 against the Lions. The argument starts with what they’ve already done: beating the New England Patriots and the Seahawks, the two Super Bowl opponents in February, while surviving the toughest part of the schedule.
The road gets a little more manageable from here, with the Buccaneers, Saints, and Dolphins on deck over the next five games. Even with the remaining tests against the rest of the NFC North, the Bills, and the Jaguars, the Bears are viewed as talented enough to finish the job.
The final record projection has Chicago going 13-4, with a top-10 offense and defense, and clinching the division by beating Detroit in Week 17.
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