The Bears Are For Real - But the Road to the NFC’s Top Seed Is a Gauntlet
Let’s start with the obvious: the 2025 Chicago Bears are not the same team that’s been stuck in neutral for the better part of the last decade. They’re 9-3, riding a five-game win streak, and - believe it or not - sitting atop the NFC standings.
Not hanging around the Wild Card bubble. Not tied for second.
Right now, they’re the team to beat in the conference.
But before fans start mapping out playoff tailgates at Soldier Field, let’s be clear - the road to the NFC’s No. 1 seed is anything but smooth. The Bears are in the driver’s seat, yes, but the road ahead is steep, icy, and full of potholes. And there’s a pack of contenders in the rearview mirror ready to take advantage of any misstep.
Let’s break down what’s real, what’s possible, and what needs to happen if the Bears want to lock up that coveted first-round bye.
The NFC Race: A Logjam at the Top
The NFC playoff picture right now is as tight and chaotic as it gets. The Bears, Rams, and Seahawks are all sitting at 9-3.
Right behind them? The Eagles at 8-4, the Packers at 8-3-1, and the 49ers at 9-4.
That’s six teams within a single win of each other, all jostling for position with five weeks to go.
The Bears currently hold the edge thanks to a stronger conference record, but that lead is paper-thin. One loss, and the entire seeding picture could flip. The margin for error is razor-sharp.
Here’s how the top contenders stack up down the stretch:
| Team | Record | Key Remaining Games |
|---|
| Chicago Bears | 9-3 | @ GB, vs. CLE, vs.
GB, @ SF, vs. DET |
| LA Rams | 9-3 | @ ARI, vs. DET, @ SEA, @ ATL, vs.
ARI | | Seattle Seahawks | 9-3 | @ ATL, vs.
IND, vs. LAR, @ CAR, @ SF |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 8-4 | @ LAC, vs. LV, @ WAS, @ BUF, vs.
WAS | | Green Bay Packers | 8-3-1 | vs.
CHI, @ DEN, @ CHI, vs. BAL, @ MIN |
| San Francisco 49ers | 9-4 | Bye, vs. TEN, @ IND, vs.
CHI, vs. SEA |
| Detroit Lions | 7-5 | vs. DAL, @ LAR, vs.
PIT, @ MIN, @ CHI | | Tampa Bay Bucs | 7-5 | vs.
NO, vs. ATL, @ CAR, @ MIA, vs.
CAR |
This isn’t a playoff race - it’s a knife fight in a phone booth. Every week is going to matter.
Every game is a swing game. And for the Bears, the path to the top is as tough as anyone’s.
The Bears’ Final Five: No Room for Error
Let’s be honest here - Chicago’s remaining schedule is brutal. Their final five opponents have a combined winning percentage of .590.
Only Seattle faces a tougher stretch. There are no layups.
No stat-padding games. Every matchup from here on out is a playoff-caliber test.
Here’s what’s on deck:
- Two games against Green Bay, a team that’s found its rhythm and is very much in the hunt for the division.
- A road trip to San Francisco, where the 49ers will be rested and likely playing for seeding.
- A Week 18 clash with Detroit, which could be a win-or-go-home scenario for the Lions - or a win-and-clinch situation for the Bears.
Meanwhile, the Rams are looking at the softest schedule among the contenders (.433). They get Arizona twice and a trip to Atlanta.
The Eagles? Practically on cruise control with a .400 strength of schedule.
Seattle’s schedule is tough too, but not quite as top-heavy as Chicago’s.
If the Bears want to finish on top, they’ll have to earn it the hard way - with grit, execution, and maybe a little luck.
What’s Fueling the Bears’ Surge
Here’s the good news: this isn’t a fluke. The Bears are playing winning football, and there’s substance behind the record.
The offense has found its identity, and it starts with Caleb Williams, who’s finally being unleashed. He’s making smart reads, extending plays, and showing off the arm talent that made him a top pick. Pair that with a top-five rushing attack, and you’ve got a unit that’s balanced, dangerous, and tough to scheme against.
Defensively, Chicago is flying around. This group is aggressive, physical, and opportunistic.
They’re not just holding leads - they’re closing games out. For a franchise that’s spent years losing close ones, that’s a massive shift.
There’s a different energy in the building. Confidence.
Swagger. For the first time in a long time, the Bears are dictating terms instead of reacting.
Three Games That Will Define the Season
Let’s zoom in on the matchups that will make or break this run:
1. Week 14 @ Green Bay
This one’s massive. Going into Lambeau with the division - and possibly the top seed - on the line?
That’s as big as it gets. A win here doesn’t just help the standings, it delivers a psychological blow to a Packers team that’s been lurking all year.
2. Week 17 @ San Francisco
This is the kind of game that tests your identity. The Niners will be rested and playing playoff football.
If the Bears can go into Santa Clara and steal one, it’ll be their biggest statement of the season.
3. **Week 18 vs.
Detroit** It could be for the NFC North crown.
It could be for the No. 1 seed. Or it could be a must-win to keep Detroit out of the postseason.
Either way, it’s shaping up to be a season-ending heavyweight bout.
What Needs to Happen
Here’s the scenario if the Bears want to finish 13-4 and grab the top seed:
- Go 4-1 the rest of the way. That likely gets it done.
- Beat Green Bay twice. That’s a two-game swing in the division and the conference.
- Hope the Rams drop one - Detroit or Seattle could do the honors.
- Hope Seattle stumbles - either at San Francisco or at home against the Rams.
- Avoid slipping up against Cleveland or Detroit.
It’s not easy, but it’s all within reach. The Bears control their destiny. That’s all you can ask for in December.
Final Word
The Bears aren’t hoping for a miracle. They’re not waiting for someone else to hand them a playoff spot. They’ve earned their place at the top, and now it’s about finishing the job.
This team looks different. Feels different.
They’re not just surviving - they’re thriving. And if they can navigate this final stretch, they won’t just be in the playoffs.
They’ll be hosting them.
Because if the Bears do pull this off? Nobody - and I mean nobody - is going to want to come to Soldier Field in January.