Rookie safety Dillon Thieneman is already drawing serious buzz, and the early summer reports have only pushed the expectations higher.
What started with strong draft-night anticipation has turned into something more concrete after OTAs and minicamps. Thieneman has reportedly been working with the first-team, and he already looks smart enough to get on the field in Week 1.
That kind of momentum is what led Alex Kay of Bleacher Report to take a big swing with his rookie projection. Kay is forecasting Thieneman for 98 combined tackles and five interceptions.
Based on his draft slot, an 84-tackle season would already put him in solid company. Getting to 98 would be a noticeable jump, and pairing that with five picks would make it a standout debut.
The bar for that kind of production is not exactly common. Since 1994, when combined tackles began to be tracked, only 22 defensive backs have reached at least 98 tackles in their rookie seasons. The most recent examples were Malachi Moore of the New York Jets and Xavier Watts of the Atlanta Falcons.
That list includes some familiar names: Jalen Pitre, Jessie Bates, Derwin James, Harrison Smith, TJ Ward, Landon Collins, Donte Whitner and Keanu Neal. It is a strong group, but the numbers alone do not guarantee a future star.
The interception piece makes the projection even more interesting. Only one of those players paired at least 98 tackles with five interceptions, and that was Pitre. Erik Coleman had four interceptions in 2004, while a group that included Bates, James, Smith, Madieu Williams and Alterraun Verner each finished with three.
Several of those players went on to long, productive careers. Pitre is entering his fifth year and is an ascending player.
James is entering his eighth year. The others who reached at least three interceptions were NFL starters for at least eight seasons.
The honors followed, too. Verner made an All-Pro once, Smith earned six Pro Bowls and two All-Pros, James has five All-Pro seasons, and Bates has three All-Pro seasons. Four of the seven players to post 98 tackles and three interceptions made an All-Pro at some point, and Pitre was already close to making that a fifth.
Thieneman’s projection is still just that - a projection. But if he comes anywhere close to that level, he should put himself in line for postseason recognition down the road.
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