The Chicago Bears may be about to hand Tyson Bagent the kind of opportunity that can change a quarterback’s standing overnight. It might also do the opposite.
Earlier this offseason, Chicago was willing to listen if teams wanted to call about Bagent. Nothing came of it, but the fact that the Bears were open to those conversations said plenty about how they viewed him. Now, with Caleb Williams hurt and Bagent expected to start, the discussion has shifted from his trade value to what kind of quarterback he actually is.
Bleacher Report’s Moe Moton recently floated a move that would send Mason Rudolph from the Pittsburgh Steelers to Chicago, and he made the case that Rudolph would be an upgrade over Bagent. Moton pointed to Rudolph’s run late in the 2023 season, when he helped Pittsburgh go 3-0, reach the playoffs, and reassert himself as a steady backup and occasional fill-in starter.
Rudolph’s résumé is the more established one. He has 19 career NFL starts and a 9-9-1 record. He’s completed 64% of his passes, with a 4.1% touchdown rate and a 3% interception rate, along with a 5.5 adjusted net yards per attempt mark for his career.
Bagent’s numbers are solid enough to explain why the Bears have some confidence in him, but not quite enough to make him look like a clear-cut answer. In four career starts, he is 2-2.
He has completed 66% of his passes, but his touchdown rate sits at 1.9%, while his interception rate is 3.8%. His adjusted net yards per attempt is 4.4.
That’s the heart of the comparison: Rudolph has been more productive in the areas that usually matter most. He has thrown more touchdowns, picked off fewer passes, and generally moved the offense more efficiently than Bagent has.
That doesn’t mean Chicago is going to go shopping for another quarterback. The Bears are expected to give Bagent his shot. But the national view of him, and the Rudolph comparison in particular, should take some of the shine off the idea that he is already a potential long-term answer or a hot trade commodity.
Some Bears fans entered the season seeing Bagent as one of the better backup quarterbacks in the league and maybe even a name that could turn into a starter somewhere else. That’s not how the market looks right now. The Steelers, after all, are in a position to move Rudolph because they have both Drew Allar and Will Howard.
For Bagent, the path to real starter interest is clear enough: he would have to play exceptionally well. Anything less, and the league may continue to view him the way this comparison suggests - useful, capable, but not especially different from a Mason Rudolph-type quarterback.
The Bears can hope Bagent makes the most of the chance. They just probably shouldn’t expect a straight-line rise.
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