If the Charlotte Hornets are going to run into trouble next season, it probably won’t come from one dramatic collapse. It’ll come from a stack of smaller issues: a bigger offensive load for young wings, shaky rookie contributions, and a starting lineup that suddenly asks a lot more from players who have mostly lived in narrower roles.
The clearest pressure point is the offense without LaMelo Ball. Kon Knueppel and Brandon Miller are now expected to carry the front end of the attack, but nobody should mistake that for a clean replacement of Ball’s game. They’re different players entirely, and they do not bring his passing or his handle.
What the Hornets do believe, though, is that both players should take a noticeable step forward. That matters even more now because they’ll be handling the ball far more often than they did a year ago.
According to databallr.com, Ball had it in his hands 42% of the time when he was on the court and Charlotte had possession last season, one of the highest rates in the league. Miller was at 20.8%, while Knueppel sat at 13.5%.
Those numbers are going up. The question is how long it takes for the adjustment to settle in. For both players, a year or more to get comfortable with the added responsibility would not be surprising.
The rookies offer another layer of uncertainty. Hornets fans have every reason not to overreact to Summer League either way - Victor Wembanyama went 2 of 13 from the field against Charlotte in his first Summer League game - but those games can still reveal something. For Hannes Steinbach and Christian Anderson Jr., the early read was similar: slow starts, better finishes, and Steinbach especially leaving a stronger impression late.
Still, both players have obvious flaws that could keep them from helping right away. Steinbach has real questions on defense and positioning, and his offensive game is so broad that it’s not even clear yet where he fits best. Anderson Jr. has never been much of a rebounder, has to prove he can hold up defensively, and in a tiny Summer League sample he had trouble adjusting to the NBA three-point line.
There’s upside there, plenty of it. But there’s no guarantee either one becomes useful immediately.
That’s the broader theme with this roster. Even if Knueppel and Miller make real strides as shot creators, they still won’t become natural table setters overnight. Dennis Schröder can ease some of that load, but he’s not exactly a pure ball-handling answer at this stage of his career.
That leaves a lot on Coby White, who is set to replace Ball as the starting point guard. White has done this sort of thing before, both as a starter in Chicago and as a backup for Charlotte after arriving in the trade. The 26-year-old’s assist numbers have always been respectable, and if you watch him closely, you’ll see passes that look like they belong to a player averaging six-plus assists.
The problem is that he has never actually gotten there over a full season. Even with plenty of offensive talent around him in Chicago, that higher playmaking level never fully showed up for long enough.
For Charlotte’s offense to hum again, those flashes have to become habits. The driving is already there. Last season, White averaged 11.5 drives and 6.2 points per drive in just 25.0 minutes per game, while shooting 51.9% from the field.
The young veterans are part of the equation too. Liam McNeeley, Tidjane Salaün, Ryan Kalkbrenner, and Sion James have all shown bits of promise, but each has also exposed some pretty clear limitations.
Kalkbrenner and James look like end-of-rotation players at this point. They proved that over enough of a sample last season, and neither appears close to a major leap in minutes or role.
Kalkbrenner is still only dependable in certain matchups, and even there he has more work to do as a rim protector and screen setter. James, despite Charlotte’s efforts to build him up, still hasn’t shown he can handle the ball efficiently in the NBA, and his three-point shooting remains a question.
McNeeley and Salaün are a different kind of puzzle. Salaün looks physically ready for NBA action, but he hasn’t shown yet that he can process the game quickly enough. McNeeley looked more polished in Summer League, but the open question is whether his body can take the punishment of NBA wings.
That’s why the realistic worst-case picture for Charlotte is less about one disaster and more about a roster that simply doesn’t get enough reliable growth, fast enough. Outside of perhaps McNeeley - who was so unimportant last season that even a jump would barely move the needle - nobody is obviously positioned to make a big leap in minutes or production this year.
And then there’s the Naz Reid piece, which brings a different kind of challenge. Reid has been one of, if not the best, sixth men in the NBA over the last couple of years, giving Minnesota valuable offense and leadership during repeated deep playoff runs.
Now he’s moving into a starting role, and the concern isn’t whether he can play. It’s what changes when that same production has to hold up in a different setting.
The minutes may look familiar, but the task won’t. Reid has long finished games for the Timberwolves, so tougher competition is nothing new.
But doing it every night is different. The nightly matchups are stronger, the margins are thinner, and there are no soft spots when the opponent’s second unit is undersized.
Even the Brooklyn Nets, Charlotte’s first opponent of the season, have a starting power forward in Julius Randle who can put up 30+ points if he isn’t being defended well.
Reid doesn’t need to be dramatically better than he was in Minnesota. He just has to keep producing against a tougher class of defenders and scorers. That’s the standard now.
In Other News...
Hornets Face A Frustrating Reality About This Roster
Charlotte spent last season on the playoff fringe before finishing 44-38 and again watching the postseason from home, and the offseason has brought a mix of continuity and change. The Hornets re-signed Coby White, added Dorian Finney-Smith, and used the draft to bring in Hannes Steinbach and Christian Anderson, while an expected starting group would feature White alongside Brandon Miller, Kon Knueppel, Reid and Moussa Diabate.
Still, the broader read on the roster is less encouraging than the individual moves might suggest. With Jeff Peterson publicly expressing confidence in Miller and Knueppel after the trade of LaMelo Ball, the question now is whether Charlotte has enough high-end talent in place to do more than hover around the middle of the pack, or whether it will need to lean on future picks and swaps to chase another star before the ceiling starts to rise. [Read more 🡒]
Hornets Are Sending A Clear Message About Their Next Step
After finishing 44-39 and putting together one of their better seasons in years, Charlotte is entering the next phase with a different kind of urgency. The front office has already sent a clear signal through recent trades that the Hornets are not trying to simply chase last years progress, but to shape the roster around younger pieces such as Brandon Miller and Kon Knueppel.
That approach may come with a step back in the standings, and NBA insider Tim McMahon expects exactly that in the coming season. For a fan base that had reason to believe the club was inching closer to respectability, the direction now looks more patient than aggressive, with the focus shifting toward a longer rebuild rather than an immediate push in the Eastern Conference. [Read more 🡒]