Amen Thompson’s new deal in Houston may have just helped set the table for Brandon Miller’s next contract in Charlotte.
The Hornets don’t have much left to sort out this summer, but Miller’s rookie-scale extension is still the big one. The fourth-year swingman can sign before the regular season starts in late October, and the top number available to him is about $250 million over five years - 25% of the salary cap - with escalators tied to honors such as All-NBA, Defensive Player of the Year and MVP.
That kind of max extension used to be the easy outcome for promising wings. Not anymore. In the second apron era, teams are squeezing every dollar they can, and those rookie-scale maxes are now mostly reserved for the Victor Wembanyamas of the league - the clear-cut franchise anchors who leave no doubt about their worth.
Back in May, I projected Miller’s next contract at five years and $185 million, which works out to $37.5 million annually. That number would give Miller a huge payday, keep Charlotte flexible around the edges, and spare both sides the drawn-out uncertainty of restricted free agency.
Thursday’s news from ESPN’s Shams Charania gave that projection some fresh context: the Rockets and Amen Thompson agreed to a five-year, $208 million extension worth $41.6 million per season. If that’s the going rate for Thompson, then $37.5 million a year for Miller suddenly looks pretty reasonable.
On paper, the two players stack up fairly closely in the basic numbers. Miller is the better, more efficient scorer and does a lot of his damage from deep.
He’s shown he can stretch the floor and spark offense in bursts, even if he’s not a full-time engine yet. The turnovers are still an issue, and his work inside the arc needs to catch up, but the trajectory is there.
Thompson brings a different package. He’s a powerful downhill driver and an improving passer, and he’s managed to make an impact even in Houston’s cramped offensive setup. The Rockets have too many non-shooters around him to really see the best version of his game in space, but he’s still been effective despite that mess.
The gap between them comes down to two major points. First, Miller’s health remains a real factor.
He’s dealt with a wrist injury and a shoulder injury, both of them the kind of weird, one-off problems that don’t make him injury prone, but have kept him from getting a full offseason of work. Rod Boone of the Charlotte Observer reported that Miller still has not been cleared for basketball activities with training camp less than a month away.
That matters because Miller still has development to chase. He needs to tighten up as a ball-handler and add strength to his frame. The question is how much of that work he’s been able to do while rehabbing after shoulder surgery this summer.
The second difference is Thompson’s defense. He’s a monster on that end, and Miller just isn’t there yet. Amen Thompson has a case as the best non-big defender in the NBA, along with his brother Ausar, and through three seasons he has shown he can erase people on the wing.
Advanced metrics, while never the whole story, also tilt toward Thompson.
So while Miller and Thompson are close in overall impact, the Rockets wing is the better player right now. If you need one shot in one possession, Miller might be your guy. But over a full season and into the playoffs, Thompson gets the edge at this moment.
That doesn’t mean the debate is settled forever. Miller still has plenty of upside, and there’s good reason to believe in where he can go long term. But based on what both players have shown so far, Thompson has the stronger case today - and that should put Miller’s next deal somewhere between the $37.5 million annual figure and the $41.6 million per year Thompson just secured.
In Other News...
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What makes the fit intriguing is how Schroders game is supposed to translate on both ends without needing to dominate the ball. Lee believes he can push the pace, attack the lane and help create cleaner looks for teammates, while also bringing the kind of competitive edge the Hornets have been searching for from their bench. For a team trying to build habits as much as results, that combination could end up mattering a lot. [Read more 🡒]
Hornets Enter A Risky New Era With One Huge Offensive Question
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For Charlotte, the bigger question is not just who is available, but how much offensive responsibility the roster can realistically absorb after a major reshaping. ESPNs projections point to Brandon Miller and Kon Knueppel taking on most of the scoring load, with Charles Lee leaning into a committee approach, and that puts a lot of pressure on the Hornets to make the right calls early. The challenge is obvious: if the offense stalls, the margin for error gets thin fast, and the teams newest era could turn risky before it ever gets comfortable. [Read more 🡒]
Brandon Miller's Next Step Could Decide How Relevant Hornets Stay
With LaMelo Ball now in Minnesota, the Hornets are heading into a different kind of era, one with a lot more riding on Brandon Miller. The move opened up a far larger runway for the second-year forward, and it immediately shifted the conversation from Balls long-term ceiling to Millers next leap. For a team trying to stay relevant in the Eastern Conference, his development may end up mattering as much as any roster move.
Miller already showed enough last season to make the league take notice, and some analysts think the increased opportunity could push him into Most Improved Player territory. The logic is simple enough: more touches, more responsibility, and a bigger offensive burden could bring out the best in him. For Charlotte, the question is no longer whether Miller has talent. It is whether he can turn that talent into the kind of star turn that gives the Hornets a real direction. [Read more 🡒]