Miami has separated itself from the rest of Florida early in the 2026 season, and the numbers back it up.
Using the ESPN Football Power Index as the measuring stick, the Hurricanes sit atop the Sunshine State rankings heading into Week 3. Miami is fifth nationally in the FPI after rolling past Stanford 45-6 and Florida A&M 77-7, and the team is also fifth in both the AFCA Coaches Poll and the Associated Press Top 25.
The FPI gives Miami a 66.1 percent chance to win the ACC and a 79.3 percent projection of reaching the College Football Playoff.
Florida is next in line among the state’s teams, coming in 15th nationally in the FPI after opening with a 66-21 win over Florida Atlantic and a 52-3 rout of Campbell. The Gators have an 83.7 percent chance to get to six wins and qualify for a bowl game, but the model also gives them just an 18.4 percent shot at making the College Football Playoff.
Florida carries the 133rd-toughest strength of schedule and the fifth-most difficult remaining SOS, according to the FPI. Auburn will host Florida on Saturday in what the source describes as the Gators’ first difficult test in 2026.
Florida State checks in third among Sunshine State programs and 37th in the FPI. The Seminoles opened with a 34-17 win over New Mexico State before falling 27-24 to SMU on Labor Day night.
Their strength of schedule is 50th, with a remaining SOS of 18th. Alabama will host FSU on Saturday, and the FPI projects the Seminoles with a 52.1 percent chance to reach six wins in 2026.
UCF sits fourth in the state rankings and 48th nationally in the FPI. The Knights blasted Bethune-Cookman 73-6, then dropped a 12-7 game at Pittsburgh.
The model projects UCF for 6.2 wins and 5.9 losses, along with a 63.1 percent chance to earn a bowl berth. Georgia State visits UCF on Saturday.
South Florida comes in fifth among Florida teams and has been one of the more intriguing early numbers in the state. After a 19-9 win over FIU and a 28-24 victory at Army, the FPI projects the Bulls to finish with 9.5 wins and 2.8 losses. The model gives USF a 99.1 percent chance to win six games, a 20.1 percent chance to win the American and a 10.7 percent probability of reaching the CFP.
FIU is sixth in the Sunshine State rankings and 109th in the FPI. The Panthers opened with a loss at South Florida, then beat Buffalo 33-20 on Saturday. The FPI projects FIU for 6.7 wins and 5.5 losses in 2026, with a 72.8 percent chance of reaching six wins and a 10.8 percent chance to win Conference USA.
FAU rounds out the state list at No. 7 and 115th nationally. After losing at Florida, the Owls beat Navy 38-20 last week.
The FPI projects FAU for 5.6 wins and 6.6 losses, giving the program a 47.3 percent chance to get to six wins. FAU will host FIU in the Shula Bowl on Saturday.
In Other News...
UCF Defense Has Become A Strength With One Big Problem Left
UCFs defense has quietly turned into one of the main reasons the Knights have been able to compete early this season. Over the past two weeks, opponents have averaged just nine points against a group that now sits second in the Big 12, and the improvement has been especially noticeable late in games. Defensive coordinator Alex Grinch has pointed to the units depth as a big part of that surge, with the Knights able to keep fresh bodies on the field and maintain their level when drives start to pile up.
The recent loss to Pittsburgh did not change the larger picture much, either, because UCF still held up well against a Power Four opponent and showed the kind of defensive backbone that can travel. Even so, the next step is obvious. The Knights have been difficult to score on, but they still want more takeaways as the season goes on, and that missing turnover punch remains the one piece keeping this defense from looking fully complete. [Read more 🡒]
UCF Fans Just Got An Early Look At Next Seasons Biggest Tests
UCFs mens basketball calendar for 2026-27 is now in place, giving Knights fans an early read on how the next season will be shaped after the Big 12 rolled out its conference schedule. The full slate brings a mix of familiar league grind and nonconference intrigue, with home dates that should help define the tone in Orlando and road stretches that will test how far the program has come.
Among the most notable stops on the schedule are Yale, Georgia, Iowa State, Houston and Texas Tech, a collection that should give UCF plenty of chances to measure itself against different styles and personnel. The matchup with Houston stands out in particular, not just because of the league stakes, but because of the history between the teams and the way these games can linger from one season to the next. [Read more 🡒]
UCF Fans Just Got A Clear Look At The Big 12 Grind Ahead
UCF fans finally have a better sense of what the first Big 12 winter will look like for the mens basketball program, and the view is a demanding one. The conference slate stretches from Jan. 2 through March 6, giving the Knights an 18-game run that will test how well they handle the week-to-week climb in a league that leaves little room for breathers.
Season tickets and single-game tickets are already on sale, which means supporters can start circling the matchups that figure to shape the season. Among the most intriguing are the home-and-home dates with Baylor, Texas Tech and West Virginia, the kind of recurring crossovers that should tell plenty about where UCF stands as it settles into its new conference home. [Read more 🡒]