The Carolina Panthers may have avoided the worst-case label in one analyst’s division forecast, but the betting market still isn’t buying them as the team to beat in the NFC South.
Bleacher Report’s Moe Moton recently laid out his list of teams most likely to finish last in each division, and when he got to the NFC South, he didn’t land on Carolina. Instead, he picked the Atlanta Falcons, a choice that lines up with the biggest uncertainty in the division right now: quarterback.
Atlanta signed Tua Tagovailoa after the Miami Dolphins moved on from him following years of inconsistency and injury-plagued seasons. He’s now in a battle with Michael Penix Jr., the former eighth-overall pick who suffered a partially torn ACL in 2025 and is competing for the starting job this season. Penix has also dealt with inconsistency as Atlanta’s starter, and his injury history stretches back to college, where he sustained multiple torn ACL injuries.
That’s part of why Moton sees more stability in Carolina and New Orleans. The Panthers are coming off a playoff berth, while the Saints closed the regular season strong, playing like the division’s best team over the final six weeks and beating Carolina during that stretch.
Still, the sportsbooks are taking a different view. On FanDuel Sportsbook, the Panthers have the longest odds to win the NFC South at +350.
The Buccaneers are the favorites at +210, the Saints sit at +240, and the Falcons are next at +290.
Carolina being the only team in the division priced above 3-1 says plenty about how the market views the race, even after what the Panthers did this offseason. Their defense, at least on paper, looks loaded after the additions of Jaelan Phillips and Devin Lloyd.
If there’s a reason the books are hesitant, it likely comes down to Bryce Young. The skepticism around Young is obvious, but the numbers of concern around him don’t compare to the uncertainty facing Tagovailoa and Penix, especially when health is part of the equation.
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