The Panthers have put together two straight wins over playoff hopefuls, and now they get a home date with the Buccaneers - a team that has given them plenty of trouble. Tampa Bay might have Baker Mayfield back for this one, but even if he sits, it figures to be a nasty division game with real weight attached to it.
The Buccaneers need a win to chip away at Carolina’s lead in the division, and that has kept plenty of attention on this matchup. Around the NFL media landscape, the picks are leaning Carolina, but not by much and not with total confidence.
CBS Sports analyst Pete Prisco, who had not picked the Panthers to win in any of their previous games, is finally on their side this week. He’s taking Carolina by one point and said, "The Bucs might have Baker Mayfield back for this one.
That would be big. The Panthers are rolling on offense as Bryce Young is in the MVP conversation.
It will stay that way, but the Bucs will hang around."
His CBS colleague John Breech also has the Panthers winning, though by a field goal. Arizona Republic writer Jeremy Cluff sees it as a 24-16 Carolina win, pointing to the Bryce Young-led offense keeping things humming at home.
Not everyone is buying the Panthers surge. SI’s Ian MacMillan is going the other way and has Tampa Bay pulling the upset in Charlotte.
"Time to sell high on [the Panthers]. Their offense has been phenomenal to start the year, but I have plenty of questions surrounding the ability of some of the defenses they've had to face...
I wouldn't be surprised to see them significantly regress. It could start this weekend when they take on a Tampa Bay defense that's fourth in opponent EPA per play and eighth in opponent success rate," he wrote.
Sporting News’ Vinnie Iyer sees the Panthers holding serve in a 24-17 result. "Jalon Daniels is doing his best to keep the Bucs' competitive with help from the running game.
The defense is also bringing a good pass rush of late. Bryce Young is locked in passing all over the field for the Panthers, however and their running game is red-hot with Chuba Hubbard," he wrote.
The Athletic’s Nick Kostos took a different route, siding with the Buccaneers straight up and against the spread. He said he would lean Panthers if Jalon Daniels starts, but if it’s Mayfield, he expects Tampa Bay to win.
"You just get the sense Mayfield will be better when he returns. It’s possible he was pressing after getting his desired contract extension. Mayfield will never be confused with Joe Montana, but he’s a good quarterback," he wrote.
The bigger picture is pretty clear: Mayfield’s status matters a lot. But even with that uncertainty, there’s a surprising amount of faith in the 1-5 Buccaneers and, at the same time, a surprising amount of skepticism around the Panthers. That means Carolina cannot stroll into this one expecting the outcome to take care of itself.
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