Panthers Hit the Bye Week with Playoff Dreams Alive - But the Road Ahead Is No Cakewalk
CHARLOTTE - Dave Canales had a message for his team before cutting them loose for the bye week: protect what you've built. And after a 31-28 upset win over the Rams that pushed the Panthers to 7-6, that message carries real weight.
This is unfamiliar territory for Carolina - not just being above .500 in December, but actually sitting in the thick of the NFC playoff race. It’s the franchise’s best record through 13 weeks since 2017, the last time they made the postseason.
That also happened to be the final year before David Tepper took over as owner. Since then, playoff talk in Charlotte has been more fantasy than reality.
But now, under second-year head coach Canales, the Panthers are entering the final stretch of the season with something tangible to play for. And with four games left, their playoff path is clear - if not exactly easy.
The Road to January Runs Through Tampa
Let’s not sugarcoat it: the Panthers’ playoff hopes hinge on how they handle the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Carolina still has two games left against the Bucs - Week 16 and Week 18 - and those matchups could decide the NFC South crown.
Here’s the math: if the Panthers sweep Tampa and pick up one more win against either New Orleans or Seattle, they’d finish 10-7. In that scenario, even if the Bucs also finish 10-7, Carolina would win the division thanks to the head-to-head tiebreaker.
But the Bucs aren’t exactly backing down. If Tampa wins its next three division games - against New Orleans, Atlanta, and Carolina - they’ll lock up their fifth straight NFC South title. Even if the Panthers were to win the rematch in Week 18, they’d lose the division tiebreaker due to a worse division record.
Bottom line: the margin for error is razor-thin.
"It's in Our Hands"
Running back Chuba Hubbard summed it up best after Sunday’s win: “Every week is a must-win.”
He’s not wrong. The Panthers can’t afford another slip-up, especially not against a Saints team that already handed them a 17-7 loss in Week 10. That game came just a week after Carolina stunned the Packers at Lambeau, which has been the story of their season - moments of brilliance followed by head-scratching stumbles.
Canales chalks it up to a team still learning how to win consistently. “This is a maturing team,” he said.
“It always comes down to a handful of plays - whether it’s on defense, offense or special teams. Certainly, taking care of the ball is the big thing we talk about.
But it really just comes down to the fundamental execution and consistency that we’re looking for.”
If Carolina can finally find that consistency, they’ve got a real shot to end one of the longest active playoff droughts in the NFL. The Panthers haven’t been to the postseason in seven years - a stretch matched only by the Falcons and bested (or worsened) only by the Jets.
A Different Kind of December in Charlotte
Left tackle Ikem Ekwonu isn’t taking this moment for granted.
“These are the conversations we want to be having,” he said. “Too many times around this time (the Panthers are) talking about draft picks and talking about ruining someone’s season.
That’s not the conversation I wanna be in this year. I wanna be in those talks for the postseason.”
And while a wild-card berth is technically still in play, the Panthers’ most realistic path is through the division. The 49ers currently hold the final NFC wild-card spot and already own a head-to-head win over Carolina, which makes catching them a longshot.
According to playoff simulations, Carolina’s odds sit at 46 percent if they split with the Bucs and beat both the Saints and Seahawks. But if they lose to Seattle or drop another game to New Orleans, those odds drop fast - down to 9 percent or even 5 percent, depending on the combination.
Hubbard, one of the few remaining players from the 2022 squad that made a late push under Steve Wilks, isn’t getting caught up in the math.
“To be honest, every week is a must-win,” he repeated. “We’re gonna go into this bye week, rest up, study, take the lessons from everything that’s happened and just keep moving forward. Try to finish the season.”
No Room for Letdowns
The win over the Rams was powered in part by a pick-six from cornerback Mike Jackson, who knows momentum only matters if you keep it rolling.
“If we don’t come to play in New Orleans, then it really doesn’t mean much,” Jackson said. “We got to lock in on them because if I’m not mistaken, we beat Green Bay and then played (New Orleans), so it is kind of the same situation. We just have to lock in and go win that day.”
That’s the task ahead: stay locked in, stay consistent, and take care of business. The Panthers have put themselves in position to make a run - something that hasn’t been said in Charlotte this late in the season in a long time.
Now it’s about finishing the job.