Week 1 is where the NFL likes to throw a few haymakers, and this opening slate has the feel of a day built for underdogs. The rust is real, the roster turnover is real, and a lot of teams walk into September looking sharper on paper than they do on the field. That’s why the SI Team is leaning into upset hunting right out of the gate.
The biggest swing in the bunch comes in the Broncos-Chiefs matchup on Monday Night Football. One writer was blunt about being stunned that Kansas City is favored over Denver to open the season.
The Broncos, after all, were one of the league’s best teams a year ago and then added Jaylen Waddle via trade. Kansas City, by contrast, is described as being in transition on the defensive line and in the secondary, with Kenneth Walker III arriving to help the offense but the rest of the skill group still lacking pop.
Patrick Mahomes always changes the math, but the pick here is Denver, with the Broncos’ pass rush expected to make things miserable for him in his first game back from a torn ACL.
Another upset call goes against the Titans, with the Jets pegged as a live road dog. The case for New York starts with the roster: Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall, DeMario Davis, and Minkah Fitzpatrick give the team a veteran-heavy core that can absolutely play with people.
The concern sits with Aaron Glenn, who had a rough first year at the helm, and quarterback Geno Smith, whose career has been uneven. Even so, the belief is that the Jets have enough to go into Tennessee and steal one as they settle in under new head coach Robert Saleh.
The Colts also get a nod as a team worth backing against the Ravens. Baltimore is getting plenty of praise despite coming off a losing season and bringing in a new head coach, Jesse Minter.
The argument against the hype is simple: it may take Minter time to get comfortable in the job. On the other side, Indianapolis has continuity with Shane Steichen, who’s praised as an excellent offensive play-caller and expected to have a few wrinkles ready for Baltimore’s defense.
The most direct fade of the week is the Bears, and the pick is Carolina to win outright. The writer calls Chicago the No. 1 regression candidate and says that would make it hypocritical not to back the Panthers in Week 1.
The concern with the Bears is built on how they kept winning last year: they went 7-4 in one-score games, pulled off six wins while trailing with two minutes or less remaining, and led the NFL in average turnover differential per game at +0.9. Those are hard numbers to repeat.
Add in the loss of DJ Moore and a defense that got worse, and the picture gets shakier. Caleb Williams had his moments late, but he finished 20th in adjusted EPA per play and 29th in completion percentage over expected, which doesn’t exactly calm the nerves.
There’s also a broader betting angle behind the Denver pick. Only two teams finished last season in the top 10 in EPA/Play on both offense and defense: Denver and New England. That’s part of the reason the Broncos are seen as undervalued in the market, sitting behind the Chiefs and Chargers in AFC West odds and behind them in Super Bowl odds as well.
The take is that Denver’s defense belongs in the league’s upper tier, and Mahomes’ mobility in his first game back from the torn ACL is a major question. Add in what’s described as the best offensive line in football and another outside weapon in Jaylen Waddle, and the Broncos are being framed as a team capable of making a real statement.
The spread, in that view, should be closer to 1.5 or 2. Instead, the pick is Denver to walk into primetime and leave with a Week 1 upset, with Bo Nix and Co. getting the chance to announce themselves early.
In Other News...
Panthers Pass Rush Takes An Early Hit Before Week 1
Pat Jones II wont be on the field when the Panthers open the 2026 season against the Bears, and that leaves an immediate hole in a pass rush that was counting on him to help set the tone. Dave Canales said the starting outside linebacker is dealing with a back injury, specifically an aggravation on the opposite side from the issue that sidelined him in 2025, a reminder that Carolina is already managing depth before the first snap counts.
Princely Umanmielen, Trevis Gipson and Thomas Incoom are the next names up, and their workloads figure to grow quickly with Jones unavailable. For a defense trying to come out of Week 1 with some early momentum, the bigger question now is how Carolina replaces Jones presence off the edge while keeping the rotation steady if this back issue lingers beyond the opener. [Read more 🡒]
Panthers Face One Bryce Young Problem They Cant Hide
The Panthers are heading into 2026 with a rebuilt look up front, and Bryce Young will feel it immediately. Carolina is set to open the season with three new starters on the offensive line, plugging in Rasheed Walker at left tackle, Luke Fortner at center and rookie Monroe Freeling at right tackle while the team waits for a healthier picture to emerge on the edge. It is a lot of change at once for an offense that has spent enough time trying to settle in, and the timing is especially awkward with Taylor Moton expected to miss the early part of the year and Ikem Ekwonu unlikely to be available.
The bigger issue is not just who is starting, but who is behind them. Carolinas depth at tackle is thin, with Stone Forsythe the primary backup, which leaves little margin for error if injuries pile up or if the line simply takes time to gel. For Young, that means another season where the protection plan could be as important as the playbook, especially when the schedule brings stronger defenses and the Panthers need the pocket to hold up long enough for their quarterback to work. [Read more 🡒]
Panthers Tight End Debate Just Got More Interesting Around Bryce Young
The Panthers tight end room has become one of the more interesting side stories around Bryce Young, especially after the team added Darren Waller as what looks like a short-term fix. It gives Carolina a veteran presence at a position that has been more about patchwork than long-term planning, and it also suggests the front office knows the group around Young still has room to grow as the offense keeps taking shape.
Even with Waller in place, the long view is already getting attention. A CBS Sports mock draft has Carolina taking LSU tight end TreyDez Green in the first round in 2027, a nod to how much his size, athleticism and red zone production have stood out in college. For the Panthers, it is another reminder that the answer at tight end may not be settled yet, even if the current stopgap helps bridge the gap. [Read more 🡒]