Baker Mayfield's Costly Mistake Leaves Buccaneers Reeling in NFC South Race
With the NFC South on the line and the clock ticking under a minute, Baker Mayfield had a chance to deliver a season-defining drive. Instead, he delivered the throw he’ll want back more than any other this year - and possibly in his career.
Trailing 23-20 to the Carolina Panthers in a game that could ultimately decide the division, Mayfield had the Buccaneers moving. They’d crossed midfield, sitting at the Carolina 42-yard line with a manageable 2nd-and-9. The moment called for poise, precision, and maybe a little magic.
What they got was a misfire that left everyone scratching their heads - including Mike Evans.
Evans, lined up inside near the hashmarks, had his hands in the air, clearly expecting the ball. Instead, Mayfield threw to the far sideline, where no Buccaneer was in sight. The only player waiting was Panthers safety Lathan Ransom, who gladly accepted the gift and sealed the win for Carolina.
It was a brutal ending to a game Tampa Bay had to have. And now, with just two games left, the Bucs are on the outside looking in when it comes to the NFC South crown.
NFC South Stakes Just Got Higher
Sunday’s loss drops Tampa Bay to 7-8 and hands Carolina (8-7) control of the division heading into Week 17. These two teams will meet again in Week 18, and if Carolina wins that one, they’ll clinch the division outright. For the Bucs, the path is clear but steep: beat both the Dolphins and Panthers to punch a playoff ticket.
That’s easier said than done, especially with the way things have gone lately.
A Skid That Won’t Stop
This was Tampa Bay’s sixth loss in their last seven games - a collapse that’s been as frustrating as it’s been sudden. A team that once looked like a steady contender in a wide-open division now finds itself spiraling at the worst possible time.
And Mayfield’s play has mirrored the team’s downturn.
Over the course of those six losses, Mayfield’s numbers haven’t been disastrous on paper - nine touchdowns to six interceptions - but the timing and weight of those turnovers have been damaging. Sunday’s pick was the most devastating yet. In a must-have moment, with the season hanging in the balance, Mayfield made the wrong read, the wrong throw, and the wrong kind of history.
Panthers Flip the Script
Carolina’s win wasn’t just big for the standings - it was a breakthrough. The Panthers had dropped five straight to the Bucs before Sunday, and this one couldn’t have come at a better time. Their defense, particularly in crunch time, stepped up and delivered the kind of play that defines playoff pushes.
Now, with momentum on their side and the tiebreaker in hand, Carolina is in the driver’s seat. If they can finish the job in Week 18, they’ll be heading to the postseason. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, is left clinging to hope and searching for answers.
What’s Next?
For the Bucs, it’s gut-check time. Two games remain, and both are must-wins.
The Dolphins are up next, and they’re no easy out. Then comes the rematch with Carolina - a game that could be a winner-take-all showdown for the division.
But none of that matters if Tampa Bay can’t get out of its own way. And for Mayfield, there’s no escaping the reality of Sunday’s mistake. It was a throw that didn’t just lose a game - it may have cost them the season.
The pressure’s on. The margin for error is gone. And the Buccaneers are running out of time.