Dylan Larkin’s trade list may be longer now, but the true market is still tiny once the cap does its work.
ESPN’s Greg Wyshynski reported on Oct. 20 that the former Detroit Red Wings captain has widened his list from three teams to 10. The original trio was Florida, Minnesota, and Vegas. The seven additions are Carolina, Colorado, Dallas, New Jersey, Tampa Bay, Utah, and Washington.
That sounds like leverage. In practice, it mostly sharpens the math. With an $8.7 million cap hit attached to Larkin’s 8-year, $69.6 million deal, only two of those 10 clubs look like realistic landing spots, and neither one was on the initial list.
Carolina is the easiest match by far. The Hurricanes have about $9.3 million in projected cap space, which means they could absorb Larkin’s full hit without sending money back to Detroit. That matters because it gives the Red Wings a cleaner kind of trade partner - one that can focus the return on picks and young talent instead of forcing salary into the deal.
Utah is the other workable fit, though it would need a little help. The Mammoth are sitting at roughly $4.8 million in space, so they would have to send back about $3.9 million in salary to make the deal happen.
Even so, that’s a manageable gap, and Utah’s prospect pool and draft capital make it a plausible player here. The fit is also a little more interesting because Sebastian Cossa, once part of Detroit’s future in goal, went to Utah in June as part of the deal that brought the 23rd-overall pick back to the Red Wings.
Detroit used that pick on forward J.P. Hurlbert, and our grades for the Cossa trade gave the Red Wings a B.
The rest of the list runs into a wall. Tampa Bay has only about $1.9 million in room, so a deal would require nearly $7 million coming back to Detroit.
Minnesota, Colorado, Washington, and New Jersey are all within about $1.2 million of the ceiling. Florida, Dallas, and Vegas are already projected to be over it, with Vegas the most extreme case at nearly $8.8 million above the cap.
That doesn’t eliminate those teams, but it changes the shape of the conversation. Any serious package would need established NHL money headed to Detroit.
That’s where the Red Wings may actually have some power. Detroit has about $16.8 million in projected cap space, which gives interim general manager Shawn Horcoff the ability to take salary back if that’s what it takes to get the right return. ESPN noted that when Larkin was working with a three-team list over the offseason, cap complications and an unsatisfactory return kept him in Detroit.
The bigger list also takes one destination off the board entirely. Even with Montreal fans chanting “We Want Larkin!” at Bell Centre this month, an ESPN source said he isn’t seeking a move to a Canadian team.
There’s still plenty of moving water here. Elliotte Friedman recently raised the possibility of Detroit waiting too long and risking an injury while the situation lingers.
But the Red Wings aren’t operating from a position of panic. Larkin has five points in seven games, including two assists in Detroit’s 4-3 shootout loss to Seattle on Oct. 20, and the team has earned points in five straight games.
So the expanded list doesn’t guarantee a trade. It just gives Detroit more to work with, and the cleanest place to start is with the teams that can actually fit the money.
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