The Hurricanes came a lot closer to landing Matthew Tkachuk than most people realized, and that one swing could have changed the shape of the NHL’s last four years.
Back on July 22, 2022, Calgary sent Tkachuk and a 2025 fourth-round pick to Florida for Jonathan Huberdeau, Mackenzie Weegar, Cole Schwindt, and a 2025 first-round pick. At the time, it was one of those trades that made your head snap.
Calgary had just won the Pacific Division, survived a seven-game fight with Dallas, then got bounced by Edmonton in five games. Not long after that, Johnny Gaudreau walked in free agency.
The whole thing felt like it was coming apart.
Florida had its own frustration after winning the Presidents’ Trophy and the Atlantic Division, only to get swept by Tampa Bay in the second round. But the Panthers were moving forward, not backward.
And once they got Tkachuk, the payoff was immediate. He became a central piece in Sunrise, helping fuel three straight trips to the Stanley Cup Final and two Cup wins in his first three seasons.
Carolina saw that up close twice.
Calgary, on the other hand, has lived with the other side of the deal. Huberdeau fell from 115 points to 55 in 2022-23, a drop of 60, and he has only cleared 60 points once with the Flames.
Weegar scored 20 goals in 2023-24, but he was traded to Utah last year. Schwindt played four games, left for Vegas in 2024, and is back in Florida.
Calgary has missed the playoffs every year since the trade.
What makes this story even more interesting is that Carolina was in the mix before Florida closed the deal. Elliotte Friedman said on 32 Thoughts in June that the Hurricanes’ reported offer included Martin Necas, Alexander Nikishin, Jake Gardiner, and one or two first-round picks.
Necas was part of the package, because of course he was. In hindsight, it’s easy to see why Calgary might have had some second thoughts.
If the Flames had taken Carolina’s offer, the ripple effects could have been huge.
On the Calgary side, Necas would have arrived after Gaudreau had already left for Columbus, so it’s hard to see that changing anything there. At that point, Necas had not yet broken out.
He had 40 points in 2021-22, then led the Hurricanes with 71 points in 2022-23. The talent was obvious, even if the full breakout was still ahead.
He also would have joined a Flames team that had already lost two-thirds of its top line. Elias Lindholm was the only piece left from the trio that had each scored 40 goals.
Necas next to him could have been a strong fit, especially with the upside he was carrying. He was not a better winger than Gaudreau or Tkachuk at that moment, but the ceiling was there.
Nikishin, meanwhile, was still years from coming to North America, but he would have been an upgrade over a lot of Calgary’s current defense. Gardiner was included to make the money work. The first-round pick or picks are harder to pin down because the year wasn’t specified, but they would have landed near the bottom of the round.
And while Calgary has indeed missed the playoffs since 2022, it has not been a total free fall. In 2023, the Flames missed by two points.
In 2025, they tied for the final spot but lost out by one regulation win. A player like Necas might have been enough to push them over the line.
Or maybe not.
The bigger shift would have come in the East.
Tkachuk followed his strong 2021-22 with an even bigger 2022-23, finishing with 109 points, tied for sixth in the league. Then came the playoffs, where he turned into a nightmare for Carolina.
In the Eastern Conference Finals, he scored overtime winners in Games 1 and 2 and then buried the series-clinching goal in the final seconds of Game 4. In the alternate version of this story, none of that happens.
That’s the part the Hurricanes would have loved most. Tkachuk is not the same kind of player as Necas, but he brings a different kind of problem for opponents.
He plays with an edge, he agitates, and he lives in that space where fans hate him unless he’s wearing their colors. He has dealt with some health issues, but over the last five years he has been a point-per-game player anyway.
He also fits just about anywhere in a lineup and can hurt teams at even strength or on the power play.
He’s also the kind of postseason force Carolina has spent years trying to find. Tkachuk has topped 20 points in each of Florida’s three recent runs, and he has given the Hurricanes trouble in the Eastern Conference Finals in 2023 and 2025. That’s exactly the sort of player they were chasing.
If Florida had never gotten Tkachuk, the Panthers might not have become the powerhouse they turned into. Huberdeau could have stayed productive, or he could have declined anyway.
Either way, it’s hard to imagine the same run of dominance without Tkachuk in the middle of it. And if that happens, Carolina has a real opening to win the East during Florida’s three-year reign.
That’s what makes this one sting for the Hurricanes. They were close enough to touch it.
If the Flames had said yes, the last four years of the NHL might have looked completely different. Maybe, in another version of the league, the Tkachuk brothers end up reunited in Raleigh.