The Carolina Hurricanes’ Stanley Cup defense has gotten off to a messy start, and one of the biggest reasons might be the absence of Alexander Nikishin.
It’s not that Charles Alexis Legault or Mike Reilly have been bad in his place. The issue is that Nikishin wasn’t just another defenseman filling minutes. He was an NHL All-Rookie Team defenseman and a Stanley Cup champion, and the way he tilted the ice for Carolina last season is proving hard to replace.
The numbers only tell part of the story. Nikishin put up 11 goals and 22 assists from the blue line, but his real value came from the matchup problem he created deeper in the lineup.
Last season, his most common partner was Shayne Gostisbehere, and together they formed a pairing that opposing teams had a tough time handling. Carolina used them as a third pair, but that unit played like much more than that.
According to MoneyPuck, the Gostisbehere-Nikishin pairing posted a 59% expected goals percentage. In plain terms, the Hurricanes were controlling close to 60% of the expected goals with that duo on the ice.
That kind of output would make sense from a top pair on a lot of teams. Carolina had it coming from the bottom of the rotation.
The pair generated 19 expected goals in just 322 minutes together, which works out to a 3.53 expected goals for per 60. That was well ahead of the rest of Carolina’s blue line group. Nikishin himself had a 3.25 xGF/60 at 5-on-5, and that kind of pressure from a third-pair defenseman is a luxury few teams can match.
His shot was part of the problem for opponents, too. When a defenseman can hammer pucks from the third pair with a shot that sits above 90 miles per hour, that’s not just depth - that’s a weapon. Teams had to respect that pairing because it could change a game.
That’s what Carolina is missing now. Nikishin is a rare player, and replacing everything he brought was never realistic.
Still, the biggest hole so far has been the offensive pressure he created from the back end. After three games, it’s looking more significant than many expected.
Legault’s numbers help show the difference. Across his NHL career, his 5-on-5 expected goals for per 60 sits at 2.35, according to Natural Stat Trick.
That’s workable for a third-pair defenseman. It’s just not what Carolina had with Nikishin and Gostisbehere, one of the NHL’s most productive offensive pairings.
Among defense pairs that played at least 300 minutes, they finished with the third-highest xGF.
And Nikishin’s value went well beyond scoring and shot generation. He brought size, strength, leadership from his time as captain of SKA St.
Petersburg, and the kind of experience he built in the Kontinental Hockey League. He also logged heavier minutes higher in the lineup when injuries hit Carolina’s blue line.
There was never going to be a clean one-for-one replacement.
The Hurricanes’ system makes that absence even more noticeable. Their approach leans hard on shots from the blue line, with forwards expected to get into place for deflections and rebound chances.
In 2025-26, Carolina’s 627 long-range shots - shots above the face-off circles - were the second-most in the NHL, according to NHL Edge. Right now, they are not replacing that puck movement and pressure from the back end.
General manager Eric Tulsky likes to say this could all change with one phone call. A call to another GM could bring in a different skill set, and a call to Nikishin’s new agent could try to repair burned bridges. But that doesn’t solve the problem in front of the Hurricanes today.
There isn’t an easy fix. Carolina will hope the issue sorts itself out as the season goes on, but if it doesn’t, Nikishin’s absence may end up mattering even more than people first thought.
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Ahos start has mattered not just because of the production, but because of the timing of it. His multi-goal outing against the Flyers helped secure Carolinas first win and offered a glimpse of how much the Hurricanes may need him while the roster works through its early-season uncertainty. For now, he is carrying more than his share of the load, and the bigger question is how long Carolina can keep asking him to do it. [Read more 🡒]