The 2026 NHL Draft Lottery is set for May 5th, a date that Flames fans have undoubtedly highlighted on their calendars. This day could significantly impact Calgary's future, for better or worse.
With the Flames on a recent hot streak, their draft position is as unpredictable as ever-they could land anywhere from first to sixth. This uncertainty makes it a perfect time to revisit the history of the draft lottery and the movement of teams within it.
Understanding the Draft Lottery
The NHL introduced the draft lottery in 1995, initially making only the first overall pick available. In 2015, the rules expanded to include the top three picks, allowing the last-place team to potentially drop to fourth, as seen with the Detroit Red Wings in 2020.
The rules evolved again in 2021, limiting the lottery to the first two picks. By 2022, a new rule allowed teams to move up a maximum of 10 spots, meaning only the bottom 11 teams could vie for the top pick.
Lottery Odds Breakdown
Looking at the odds, teams in the bottom five are more likely to move down than up. The lower a team finishes, the more teams can leapfrog them in the lottery.
For instance, the Canucks are almost certain to secure a top-three pick, as they’re likely to finish 32nd and can only be bumped to third at worst. The Flames, sitting at 29th, could slide to sixth if two teams behind them win both lotteries.
Draft Lottery Results Since 2016
Let’s dive into the numbers from recent lotteries:
- 2025: The New York Islanders jumped from 10th to 1st, and Utah Mammoth leaped from 14th to 4th.
- 2024: San Jose Sharks retained the top spot, with Chicago Blackhawks moving from 2nd to 2nd.
- 2023: Chicago moved from 3rd to 1st, while Anaheim stayed at 1st.
- 2022: Montreal Canadiens held onto 1st, and New Jersey Devils climbed from 5th to 2nd.
- 2021: Buffalo Sabres kept 1st, with Seattle Kraken moving from 3rd to 2nd.
- 2020: New York Rangers made a massive jump from 14th to 1st, and Los Angeles Kings moved from 4th to 2nd.
- 2019: New Jersey Devils jumped from 3rd to 1st, and New York Rangers moved from 6th to 2nd.
- 2018: Buffalo retained 1st, while Carolina Hurricanes leaped from 11th to 2nd.
- 2017: New Jersey Devils moved from 5th to 1st, and Philadelphia Flyers made a historic leap from 13th to 2nd.
- 2016: Toronto Maple Leafs held onto 1st, with Winnipeg Jets moving from 6th to 2nd.
Analyzing the Trends
The last-place team has kept the top pick five times, or 50% of the time. They've stayed in the top two six times, slipping out four times.
The second-to-last team has had the toughest luck, staying in the top two just once. Meanwhile, the third-to-last team has been fortunate, winning a lottery three times, including Chicago’s selection of Connor Bedard in 2019.
The most significant lottery leap was in 2017, with the Flyers moving from 13th to 2nd. Under current rules, the biggest jumps were in 2025, with Utah and New York making notable moves.
In 10 lotteries, the first overall pick has been claimed by teams in various positions, from last to 10th-last. The second lottery has seen winners from last to 14th-last. The Buffalo Sabres and New Jersey Devils have each won the first overall pick twice since the introduction of multiple lotteries, with the Devils claiming the most lottery wins overall.
As Flames fans eagerly await the lottery, the potential outcomes are as thrilling as they are unpredictable. Whether they rise or fall, the draft will undoubtedly shape the future of the franchise.