The Flames’ early-season stumble had plenty of explanations attached to it, but one of the clearest signs of progress has been hiding in plain sight: they’re finishing more of their chances.
After those first five games, when the Flames were still sitting at 0-5, the conversation naturally centered on bigger-picture issues. Devin Cooley’s extended run drew attention.
So did Connor Zary being sent to the Wranglers. But there’s another piece to the turnaround that deserves a closer look, and it comes down to shot conversion.
The first three games were especially rough. Calgary didn’t score more than once in any of them.
Since then, though, the goals have started to come in bunches. The Flames put three past the Avs, even in a loss, then followed with three in a surprise win against the Hurricanes.
They scored four against Anaheim and Detroit, five against Toronto, and six against Seattle. At the same time, the defence has looked mostly more stable.
As of the morning of November 8th, Calgary is 17 games into the final season at the Saddledome, and the team’s increased reliance on youth is already producing results, even if that wasn’t the preseason expectation.
So who has been the sharpest finisher?
Joel Farabee leads the Flames in goals with six, coming on 41 shots on net. That works out to a 14.6% conversion rate, but that still only ranks third on the team.
William Stromgren owns the best conversion rate on the roster, burying 33.3% of his shots. The obvious caveat is that he has only appeared in three games, so the number needs a little context.
Still, it’s a strong start. Among players with a longer sample size, Aydar Suniev has been the most efficient, sitting at 19% with four goals on 21 shots.
He leads the team in conversion among players with more than 10 appearances.
Matvei Gridin is right there too, with the fourth-best conversion rate overall at 13.5%, scoring five times on 37 shots.
For a team that has been leaning into youth for a while now, those numbers from Gridin, Stromgren, and Suniev are exactly the kind of signs Calgary wants to see.
The rest of the group has mostly settled into the low double digits. Matt Coronato, last season’s leading points scorer, is at 8.3% after three goals on 36 shots. That’s the third-lowest conversion rate among Flames forwards who have scored this season.
The more concerning numbers belong to the veterans.
Mikael Backlund’s 5% conversion rate stands out for all the wrong reasons. He has two goals on 40 shots, and while his value as captain goes well beyond scoring, Calgary needs more from him offensively.
Backlund has only reached 20 goals three times in his Flames career, with the last coming in 2018-19. If he keeps scoring at this pace, he’ll end up in the low double digits.
Ryan Strome has also been firing away without much payoff. He has three goals on 37 shots for an 8.1% conversion rate, which is only better than Backlund among the forwards who have scored.
Then there’s Jonathan Castagna, who has played more than 10 games and still hasn’t scored. He has taken just 10 shots in 14 appearances, which leaves him averaging fewer than one shot per game.
The bigger picture is pretty simple: the Flames are going to have their highs and lows the rest of the way, but the youth has mostly held up its end of the bargain. The more experienced forwards, on the other hand, are trending the wrong way. They may still chip in assists, but 5% and 8.3% conversion rates from the team’s two most seasoned forwards are not enough.
That raises the obvious question of whether those players could slide down the lineup if the missed chances keep piling up, especially with younger forwards pushing for more responsibility. Coronato is part of the youth movement and has long been treated as a key piece of the rebuild. But if you’re Strome or Backlund, the pressure is real.
Sentiment only goes so far. Production matters more.
And with Cole Reschny, Ethan Wyttenbach, and Cullen Potter coming through the system, it wouldn’t be a shock if some of the older names eventually give way.
In Other News...
Flames Young Core Delivered In A Wild Home Win
The Saddledome got the kind of night that reminds everyone why the Flames keep leaning into their young core. Calgary outlasted Philadelphia 4-3 in overtime in a game that swung back and forth, with Zayne Parekh flashing the dynamic skill that has made him such an intriguing piece of the future and Devin Cooley coming up with timely saves when the Flyers kept pressing.
The finish only added to the sense that this group can tilt a game in its favor when the pace turns chaotic. Calgary found a way through a tense third period and then again in overtime, leaving the building with two points and another example of how its younger players are starting to shape the identity of the team. [Read more 🡒]
Flames Blue Line Shuffle Raises Concern Ahead Of Flyers Game
The Flames are making another adjustment on the back end, recalling Brayden Pachal from the AHLs Calgary Wranglers as they prepare for a game against the Philadelphia Flyers. The move comes with Calgary looking to shore up its defensive depth after Kevin Bahl missed a recent game because of a lower-body injury, a reminder of how quickly the blue line can get stretched over the course of a season.
Pachals return gives the Flames a familiar option after he was waived earlier in the season and then logged regular minutes in the minors. For a team trying to stay organized on defense, the timing matters, and Bahls status now becomes the part to watch as Calgary heads into a matchup where every available body on the back end carries extra weight. [Read more 🡒]
Flames Must Solve A Massive Blue-Line Loss For The Rest Of The Season
The Flames are suddenly facing a much different blue line after their top defenseman was lost for the season, forcing the club to reshuffle its defensive pairings and lean on depth it had hoped to preserve for later. Calgary has already turned to Joel Hanley for a larger role, while Brayden Pachal has been recalled to help stabilize the lineup as the team tries to absorb the blow.
It is the kind of loss that changes the look of a defense overnight, especially for a team that has relied on structure and collective responsibility to stay competitive. The Flames have stressed that the answer will have to come from everyone, but the real test now is how well the group can hold together without the player who anchored so much of what they did on the back end. [Read more 🡒]