The Calgary Flames’ first 10 games have been a strange mix of bad looks and good results, and Saturday night’s 4-1 win over the Detroit Red Wings at the Saddledome only sharpened the contrast. They’ve now won three straight, even though the early numbers still look like they belong to a team stuck in the wrong direction.
That’s the puzzle here: in the first seven games, the Flames outshot their opponents in four of them and still somehow sat at 1-5-0. Then, over the next four, they were outshot in three games and still managed to win three of four. The results haven’t lined up cleanly with the process, but the underlying story over these 10 games is starting to take shape.
The biggest shift has come in the pace of play. Early on, the Flames were living in complete chaos.
Through their first six games, they and their opponents were combining for 112 shot attempts per game at five-on-five. The only team even close in that span was the New Jersey Devils, and their opponents, at 98.8 per game, according to Natural Stat Trick.
That kind of game creates all sorts of problems. Even with a 54.38% expected goals percentage over that stretch, Calgary owned just a 29.03% goal share at even strength. The goaltending numbers were ugly too, with Dustin Wolf and Devin Cooley combining for a league-worst .827 save percentage at the time.
But the recent version of this team has looked very different. Over the last four games, the shot-attempt pace has dropped all the way to 89.5 per game between the Flames and their opponents.
That slower, more controlled style has helped produce three of their four best games, with fewer chances and fewer expected goals against. Calgary has still been outchanced at five-on-five, but the games have become much friendlier to the goaltenders.
That matters for this group. Wolf and Cooley have teamed up for a .961 save percentage during the winning streak, and the way Calgary has been playing lately seems far more in line with what this roster can actually sustain.
Special teams have been a big reason the results have turned. During the win streak, the Flames have scored five power-play goals and allowed none on the penalty kill. The power play has actually been a season-long bright spot, too: Calgary ranks second in power-play goals per 60 minutes, and Matvei Gridin and Zayne Parekh have been right in the middle of it, combining for four primary assists on the team’s eight power-play goals.
Even so, the underlying numbers suggest there may be some pullback coming. The Flames are scoring at a clip that won’t last forever, especially with their current metrics.
Leaguewide, they’re averaging the eighth-fewest expected goals, the fourth-fewest scoring chances and the third-fewest high-danger chances per 60 minutes. They also carry the second-highest shooting percentage at 25%, which is hard to expect them to keep rolling with, especially after their rough five-on-five finishing.
Still, there’s a counterweight there. Calgary is generating the third-most high-danger goals for on the man advantage per 60 minutes, which helps explain why the power play has worked even without heavy volume. The game plan is creating space in dangerous areas, and Gridin’s goal against the Red Wings was a good example of that.
The penalty kill has been steady as well. Over the last five games, Calgary has killed 13 of 16 penalties, and that has helped support a stretch in which the team has won four of its last five.
This part of the operation isn’t entirely new, though. The Flames killed off 13 of the 15 penalties they took in their first five games and rank seventh in the league on the penalty kill.
What has changed is that the PK matters more now that the Flames are no longer giving up a flood of goals at five-on-five. By combining power-play and penalty-kill percentages, Calgary ranks second in the league at 116.8, well above the league average of 99.58%. That number, too, probably isn’t built to hold up forever.
There’s more to the caution flag on the penalty kill. The Flames allow the eighth-most expected goals and the fourth-most high-danger chances against per 60 minutes while shorthanded. Their goaltenders have masked some of that, sitting with a 94.74% high-danger save percentage on the penalty kill, which is 20% above league average and likely to come back toward the pack over time.
So the first five games were bleak, even with a few signs worth holding onto. The last five have been much more encouraging, because the strengths showing up now are the kind that usually matter most when teams get serious: goaltending, structure on the blue line and special teams.
That doesn’t mean this is suddenly a finished product. The Flames are still probably several seasons away from that conversation, and their recent run will almost certainly cool off.
But after stripping the roster last season and likely selling again later this season, there’s at least a blueprint starting to show itself. The losses will still come.
For a rebuilding team, though, some hope is enough.
In Other News...
Flames Game Takes A Turn After Leafs Winger Goes Down
A routine-looking matchup between the Flames and Maple Leafs took an uneasy turn in the second period when Kirill Marchenko went down after an awkward sequence along the boards. Marchenko exited in discomfort after a hit by Yegor Sharangovich sent him into the boards, adding a jolt of concern to a game that had already settled into its normal rhythm.
For Calgary, the moment became one of those bencheside reminders of how quickly a game can change. Marchenko had been on the ice for 7:05 before leaving, and the lower-body injury left the Leafs to adjust on the fly while the Flames continued trying to keep their composure around a play that suddenly carried more weight than the score. [Read more 🡒]
Oilers Rivalry Loss Came With A Bigger Concern Calgary Will Notice
The Oilers night in Detroit was frustrating enough on the scoreboard, but the bigger worry for Calgary fans watching their biggest rival was the health of Zach Hyman. Edmonton kept finding ways to push in front, only to see the Red Wings answer each time before eventually taking it in a shootout, a result that left the Oilers with a loss despite doing enough in stretches to control play.
What will linger beyond the points lost is the hit Hyman absorbed late in the game, a collision that sent him out of action and kept him from returning. In a rivalry that always carries extra weight in Alberta, any injury to a top Edmonton forward gets noticed fast, especially when it comes in a game where the Oilers already let one slip away. [Read more 🡒]
Flames May Be Finding A New Role That Fits Martin Pospisil
Martin Pospisil has been carving out a different kind of job for the Flames lately, and it has given Calgary a little more lineup flexibility in the process. The Slovak winger has been used heavily on the penalty kill and has also logged a prolonged stretch at centre, a role he spent the summer and training camp preparing for. Head coach Ryan Huska gave him a real runway there, and Pospisil has looked comfortable enough to keep the experiment going.
The offensive contribution has been part of the appeal, too, with Pospisil showing he can still help drive play while handling more responsibility down the middle. There was also a brief altercation in the Toronto game, a reminder that his edge remains part of the package, but the bigger takeaway for the Flames is how smoothly he has taken to the new assignment. If this continues, Calgary may be finding a fit that gives Pospisil a clearer path to regular minutes and a more defined place in the lineup. [Read more 🡒]