Nobody’s figured out the 2026 NHL Draft puzzle just yet, and the Calgary Flames are no exception.
The league’s scouting world has been changing for years, with teams leaning harder on video, analytics and traditional eyes-on-the-ground work to separate prospects. But the 2026 class brought a different kind of test, and it arrived at the worst possible time for anyone trying to build a clean draft board.
The NCAA’s decision to let Canadian major junior players start in 2025-26 threw the whole evaluation process into a new lane. Suddenly, the top end of the WHL, OHL and QMJHL was being pulled into college hockey, and that changed the balance in every one of those leagues. A player who looked dominant in junior wasn’t being viewed in the same environment anymore, and the usual comparison points got muddy fast.
That was part of what made the 2026 class so difficult to sort. The top 10 picks alone included four Canadian junior players, a U.S.
National Development Program product, two college freshmen brought in from the WHL, and three teenagers playing in European men’s leagues. That’s a tricky mix even before you factor in the shifting landscape around it.
Flames director of amateur scouting Tod Button said the team is still working through how to properly handle all of it. Asked after the draft about the changing environment, he was blunt about where things stand.
“We haven’t figured it out yet. It was a hard year with that perspective, and again, I was talking to Pat [Steinberg, on Flames Talk] yesterday, and the word we used right from the start of the year was ‘perspective.’”
Button pointed to the different paths prospects are now taking and why that complicates the timeline for evaluation. College players, he said, are older, stronger and more mature, but they also play fewer games, which means teams have to wait longer before they can really trust what they’re seeing.
He used Keaton Verhoeff as an example, noting the difference between the number of games he played at North Dakota and what he played the year before. Button also mentioned that some of the top prospects can be identified early, while others need much more time to settle in.
He also said the CHL has become younger, with fewer overagers in the mix, which creates another layer of uncertainty. Calgary has been talking with its analytics department about whether that should change how the league is weighted, but Button said the club is not there yet.
The bigger issue, he explained, is that amateur scouting still doesn’t have player tracking, which makes it hard to compare prospects across very different environments. Watching a player in the Swedish Hockey League is one thing.
Watching a kid in 20 games of Edina high school is another. In Button’s words, that’s where the challenge really lives: trying to blend leagues, ages and contexts into one usable evaluation system.
He said the work is ongoing and that the problem may settle down after a couple of years, but this season was a major test for Calgary’s process. The adjustment wasn’t just about the CHL becoming younger or the NCAA becoming a tougher place to project players. It was also about knowing college prospects would be targeted and tested more aggressively as the year went on.
Button brought up Keaton Verhoeff and Cole Reschny as examples of that reality. Verhoeff, he said, was going to be challenged. Reschny, meanwhile, dealt with a difficult start before settling in by the end of the year.
With the 2026 draft now complete, attention has already shifted to 2027. The next big checkpoint on the calendar is the Hlinka Gretzky Cup, which will be held in Edmonton and Red Deer in August.
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