Connor Zary enters the 2026-27 season as one of the Flames’ trickiest projection cases. The numbers have been uneven, the usage has been all over the map, and the gap between his raw talent and his stat line is still hard to ignore.
His rookie year in 2023-24 remains the clearest snapshot of what he can do when everything lines up. In 63 games, he put up 34 points, a total that looked like the start of something bigger. Since then, though, he has failed to reach the 30-point mark in back-to-back seasons, which has only sharpened the questions around the 2020 24th overall pick.
Part of the issue is opportunity. That first season came with heavy minutes next to Nazem Kadri and Yegor Sharagovich, the Flames’ top goal scorers that year, and Zary finished with 11 primary assists.
That was more than double what he managed in each of the past two seasons. Since then, he has been shuffled through the lineup, used in impact spots, pushed into depth duty with limited offensive help, and even left as a healthy scratch at times.
There’s a real argument that the Flames haven’t given him the kind of stable runway a player like Zary needs. He was a play-driving offensive force throughout his junior days with the Kamloops Blazers of the Western Hockey League, and the flashes still show up.
At the same time, it’s tough to say he’s earned a permanent bump up the lineup, especially with the advanced micro stats that have lagged for much of his career. Chance creation and defensive play have both been problem areas, and those weaknesses tend to get exposed when a player is asked to handle tougher matchups.
Still, those numbers don’t tell the whole story either. Over the last two seasons, Zary hasn’t had consistent access to much offensive talent, and that kind of stop-and-start usage makes it harder to build chemistry or settle into a rhythm. His stat lines have been underwhelming, but the skill is still visible when he’s on the ice.
That’s why 2026-27 feels like a true test. The season needs to function as an extended audition, with Zary getting a chance in the top six and on one of the power-play units.
The idea is simple: either he boosts his trade value or he proves he belongs as part of the Flames’ future. His best traits are his puck handling and his ability to skate through the neutral zone, and he’d benefit most from linemates who can shoot in volume and attack off the rush.
The line combination that stands out is Mikael Backlund, Matthew Coronato, and Zary.
The projection models split the difference in a way that says plenty about how murky this is. Based purely on his historical production per game, the model lands at 13 goals and 25 points. The version that weighs his output against his role and the team’s overall production is far more optimistic, at 12 goals and 50 points.
That kind of spread says everything about Zary right now. He could still break out fast if the role finally matches the talent.
But the concern that he remains an underwhelming first-round pick is very much alive. For now, the answer is still waiting to be written.
In Other News...
Flames Face A Real Morgan Frost Decision Before His Price Climbs
Morgan Frost has quickly become one of the more interesting pieces in the Flames center picture, and not just because of how he fits on the ice. Calgary is staring at some real uncertainty down the middle, with Ryan Strome likely to be traded and Mikael Backlund protected by a no-movement clause, which makes every decision around Frost feel a little bigger than it would otherwise. Even before the season is over, the question is already whether the Flames should lock him in now or keep weighing their options as the market around him develops.
There is a practical urgency to it, too, because a player who can help solve a roster problem tends to draw attention from other teams as well. If Calgary waits too long, the cost can rise, and the organization would be left trying to replace a useful center while also sorting out the rest of its depth chart. In a league where movement never really stops, Frost may end up being one of those names that forces a team to decide whether it wants certainty now or the risk of chasing it later. [Read more 🡒]
Flames Could Put Several Familiar Names On The Block Again
The Flames look headed toward another familiar deadline posture, with the organization expected to act as a seller in 2026-27 if the season goes the way many around the team anticipate. That opens the door to a list of recognizable names becoming available, from Ryan Strome and Joel Hanley to Zach Whitecloud and Maxim Tsyplakov, with each case shaped by contract status, recent performance and whatever value they can fetch in a reshaped roster.
Morgan Frost and Connor Zary are the two names that will draw the most attention, even before the market fully develops. Frost remains one of the more talented centremen in the organization, which gives Calgary a tough decision if the right offer arrives, while Zary has already surfaced in trade chatter and could find himself back in that conversation quickly if his start to the season does not match the teams hopes. [Read more 🡒]
Calgary Native Gets A Real Chance To Climb In The Flames System
A Calgary native who has spent recent seasons working his way through the pro ranks is getting a new opportunity close to home. The Wranglers have added Alex Young on a two-way AHL/ECHL contract, giving the former AJHL standout and college player a chance to keep climbing in the Flames organization after proving himself in the ECHL.
Young heads into the season with a real path to minutes at either level, depending on where the Wranglers need help and how the roster shakes out. For a player who has bounced around the minor-league ladder, the chance to compete for ice time in Calgarys system gives him both a fresh platform and a familiar hockey market to make an impression. [Read more 🡒]