Flames Slide Back into NHL’s Basement - Is It Time to Pivot Toward the Draft?
Just two weeks ago, the Calgary Flames clawed their way back to .500, offering a glimmer of hope to a fanbase desperate for something to believe in. But since then, the wheels have come off - again.
The Flames have dropped five of their last six and find themselves right back in the NHL’s bottom tier. The playoffs?
They’re not out of the question mathematically, but they’re slipping further out of reach with every passing game.
This latest skid has left Calgary seven points out of a playoff spot - and that’s with one more game played than the teams they’re chasing. That’s not exactly a recipe for optimism. And with just 36 games left in the regular season, the margin for error has all but disappeared.
From December Surge to January Slide
It wasn’t long ago the Flames looked like they might be turning the corner. After the worst start in franchise history, they found some rhythm in December and came within a couple of points of a wild card spot.
But that momentum has vanished. Their 1-5 start to 2026 has undone much of that December progress, and now they’re staring down another uphill climb - one that may be too steep to scale.
Let’s look at where they stand:
Current Bottom Five in the NHL (by Points Percentage):
- New York Rangers: .479
- St. Louis Blues: .468
- Calgary Flames: .457
- Winnipeg Jets: .456
- Vancouver Canucks: .402
Calgary is now back in the bottom three, just one point out of second-last in the league. Their 23 regulation losses are the second-most in the NHL, trailing only the Canucks, who are in full freefall with 25 regulation defeats and nine losses in their last 10 games.
And it’s not just Vancouver the Flames are now jockeying with in the draft lottery race. The Rangers have plummeted since Igor Shesterkin went down, and they’re now firmly in the mix for a bottom-five finish. Calgary, for their part, has created a bit of separation from sixth-last - a four-point cushion that no team wants to brag about.
The Playoff Picture: Fading Fast
So, is there still a path to the postseason? Technically, yes.
But realistically? It’s getting harder to see it.
The Flames entered the season believing they'd need around 97 points to snag a playoff berth. But thanks to a weak Western Conference, that target has dropped significantly. According to projections, the second wild card spot in the West is currently tracking to finish around 84 points - a much more attainable number, at least on paper.
But paper doesn’t play the games.
Since November 1, the Flames are 17-15-2 - a .529 points percentage. That’s solid, but not nearly enough to erase the damage from their brutal October. And when you consider they haven’t strung together a winning streak longer than three games all season, it’s hard to envision the kind of run they’d need to close the gap.
To reach 84 points, Calgary would need to collect 42 of the remaining 72 points on the table. That’s a .583 pace over the next 36 games - a significant uptick for a team that’s been stuck in neutral for most of the year. And with Rasmus Andersson expected to miss time in the coming weeks, the road only gets tougher.
If the Flames continue at their current full-season pace, they’re headed for a 75-point finish - well short of the playoff line.
The Other Road: Toward the Top of the Draft
Now, let’s flip the script.
If the playoffs are slipping away, the draft lottery is coming into sharper focus. With their recent slide, the Flames are firmly back in the mix for a top-three pick - and potentially even the No. 1 overall selection, depending on how the final stretch plays out.
Here’s how the bottom of the league is shaping up, based on current projections:
- Last place: ~70 points
- Third-last: ~76 points
- Fifth-last: ~80 points
If Calgary maintains their current .457 pace, they’re on track to finish with about 75 points - right in that sweet spot for a top-five pick, and possibly top-three. That’s not tanking - that’s just the math. And for a team in desperate need of high-end forward talent, landing in that range could be a franchise-altering opportunity.
Even if the Flames manage to play .500 hockey the rest of the way - which, given their season-long inconsistency, might be the most realistic scenario - they’d finish with 78 points. That still likely lands them in the 4-5 range for the draft, which isn’t a bad consolation prize for a lost season.
Where Do the Flames Go From Here?
The Flames are at a crossroads. With just 36 games to go, they’re stuck in a familiar place - not quite bad enough to be the worst, but not nearly good enough to challenge for the playoffs.
The December surge gave fans a taste of what could be. But the January crash has brought reality back into focus.
This team, as currently constructed, doesn’t appear capable of sustaining the kind of run needed to climb the standings. And with key players potentially on the move or unavailable, the climb only gets steeper.
So what’s the move? The numbers are painting a clear picture - this season is slipping away.
The smart play now might be to embrace the opportunity that comes with a high draft pick. That doesn’t mean giving up.
It means being strategic. It means recognizing where you are, where you’re going, and what it’ll take to get there.
The playoffs may no longer be the goal. But the future?
That’s still very much in play. And if the Flames can turn this tough season into a top-three selection, it might just be the first real step toward building something that lasts.