Cal’s 2026 season is about to start with a lot more buzz than the program has enjoyed in a while, but the real question isn’t whether the hype is real. It’s what kind of season would actually count as a win in Tosh Lupoi’s first year on the job.
The answer starts with the quarterback. Everything, in one way or another, runs through sophomore southpaw JKS Sagapolutele, a gifted passer, a quick learner and a developing leader. There are probably only a small handful of head coaches or GMs in college football who wouldn’t trade for him straight up.
Sagapolutele should be better this season because the game won’t be entirely new to him anymore. Even so, plenty will change. He’ll work with a new coordinator in Jordan Somerville, operate under center in a pro-style system instead of living in the shotgun, and do it with mostly new faces around him on offense.
Cal appears to have upgraded at receiver and running back, but the biggest swing factor remains the offensive line. The Bears made that group a priority in the transfer portal, and they won’t get the full version of Sagapolutele unless the protection in front of him holds up.
That makes the opener against UCLA on Sept. 5 feel like more than just the first game on the schedule. The Bruins, another program with a new coach, will show up at Memorial Stadium with a similar sense of urgency. Cal needs to win for a few reasons: to show the locker room Lupoi’s way can work, to prove the offseason excitement had substance, and to build early momentum that can carry past opening night.
A 4-1 start is there for the taking, even with road trips to Syracuse on Sept. 12 and UNLV on Oct. 3, plus a home date with FCS-level Wagner on Sept. 19 in between. Those road games won’t be freebies, but if Cal has serious ambitions, they’re the kind of games it has to finish.
The schedule’s biggest spotlight game comes a little later, on Friday night, Sept. 25, when Clemson visits. That’s the one that could change how people outside Berkeley see the Bears.
A new coaching regime needs a game that grabs attention, fills seats and gets high-end recruits listening. Clemson still carries weight as a brand, even if the Tigers are not the machine they were a decade ago.
Last season they went 7-6 and finished 4-4 in the ACC for the second time in three years, and they were picked fourth in the league preseason poll. Still, beating them in front of a national TV audience would put Cal on the map.
Then comes the brutal stretch. Cal has three straight road games beginning Oct. 24 at SMU, followed by NC State on Halloween and then, after its lone bye, Virginia on Nov.
- All three were projected as top-seven ACC finishers in the preseason poll, with SMU at No.
- At that point, the Bears need at least one win out of those three.
Anything more would be a bonus, but going 0-3 could drain the life out of the season.
The finish matters too. Home games against Stanford on Nov. 21 and Pitt on Nov. 28 are must-wins, and so is a bowl game.
Just getting invited isn’t enough. Cal has to complete the job.
There’s also a bigger picture here. What happens in 2026 will echo into the next offseason, shaping whether the momentum Lupoi built over the past eight months actually sticks.
Recruits who are saying they’re coming now will be watching closely, and so will donors. If Sagapolutele becomes the player people expect, Cal will be fighting real financial competition for him in 2027.
So what does success look like? In Year 1, under Lupoi’s standards, it means eight regular-season wins and a ninth in a bowl. Lupoi probably won’t be thrilled with 9-4, but brushing that off would ignore a long run of Cal football that has been, for the most part, pretty ordinary.
Sagapolutele was only two years old in 2008, the last time the Bears won nine games. If they get there this fall, Old Blues of every age will have plenty of reason to call it a success.
In Other News...
Cal Fans Are About To Get Much More Access Around Tosh Lupoi
California fans are about to have a lot more ways to follow the football program in 2026, with Cal and NBC Sports Bay Area agreeing to expand television coverage around the Bears. The partnership brings back Inside Cal Football for a second season and adds two new shows, Inside Cal Football: Golden Era and Cal Football Postgame Live, with episodes set to run on NBC Sports Bay Area as well as CalBears.com and Cal Athletics YouTube page.
The bigger draw for fans may be the access point itself, since the programming is built around game previews, behind-the-scenes coverage and postgame analysis. Tosh Lupoi will be among the personalities involved, giving supporters a closer look at a coach who is likely to remain central to the programs story as the Bears try to turn more of their week-to-week work into something the fan base can track in real time. [Read more 🡒]