Cal’s 2026 defense enters the season with more questions than proven answers, but the standard for success does not have to be sky-high.
That’s the central tension for the Bears. The offense is expected to carry more of the load, which means the defense’s job is simpler in theory: stay afloat, avoid getting steamrolled, and give the other side a chance to win games. What counts as “good enough” is the real debate.
The roster turnover tells the story. Only two regular starters from last season’s defense are back: outside linebacker Jayden Wayne and safety Aidan Manutai.
Wayne looks locked in as a starter. Safety Isaiah Crosby, who opened the 2025 season in the lineup before injuries wiped out most of his year, is a likely starter, though not a certainty.
Beyond that, Cal is leaning heavily on transfers to fill seven or eight of the 11 starting spots. Most of those newcomers were not full-time starters at their previous schools, but the staff is banking on upside.
Phil Steele’s preseason magazine doesn’t exactly scream confidence, either. It ranked Cal’s defensive line 13th in the 16-team ACC, the linebackers 15th and the secondary ninth.
Still, there is a path here. Cal’s defenses under Justin Wilcox were often the reason the Bears had any success at all.
Over the past eight seasons, Cal finished in the top half of the conference in scoring defense six times and landed in the top three three times. Wilcox built his reputation on that side of the ball, and current head coach Tosh Lupoi comes from the same defensive bloodline.
He made his name as a coordinator at Alabama and Oregon, and the expectation is that he can have a similar impact in Berkeley.
The program’s recent defensive identity has been clear: strong inside linebacker play and a secondary that could really cover. That tradition matters, especially with 11 defensive backs who have played at Cal over the past seven seasons now on preseason NFL rosters, most of them expected to remain there for the regular season.
This year’s group does not have a proven star, but three transfers have a chance to change that. Redshirt sophomore outside linebacker Solomon Williams arrived from Texas A&M.
Redshirt sophomore safety Kingston Lopa came from Oregon. Redshirt freshman inside linebacker AJ Tuitele transferred in from USC.
None of them was a regular starter last season, but if one or more of them turn into all-conference-level players, Cal’s ceiling changes fast.
There’s also a new face running the defense. Michael Hutchings is only 31 and has never been a coordinator before.
That alone doesn’t make success impossible, but it does mean the Bears are entering the season with some uncertainty on the headset. His background is in the NFL, where he coached the Minnesota Vikings’ defensive backs last season, and the expectation is that he’ll run something similar to what Oregon used under Lupoi.
That matters because continuity may be the biggest issue of all. With so many new players in key spots, cohesion becomes a real concern.
Good defenses usually have guys who have spent years playing together, building the kind of trust that lets everyone react faster and play freer. If Cal can keep the same starting group intact, the unit should get better as the season goes on.
The schedule doesn’t look like a nonstop collision with elite offenses. Among Cal’s three nonconference opponents, only UNLV is certain to bring serious firepower. The Rebels averaged 37.2 points last season and could be in that neighborhood again.
UCLA, which opens at Cal on September 5, was poor on offense last season at 18.2 points per game. But the Bruins should be better with new head coach Bob Chesney and quarterback Nico Iamaleava, who is expected to improve in his second season there. How much better is still the question.
In ACC play, Miami is the conference’s expected elite offense, and Cal does not face the Hurricanes. SMU, with a strong quarterback and offensive line, will be a major test in Dallas, and Virginia’s offensive line should also be a tough road assignment. Even so, the Bears are not staring at a schedule packed with offensive juggernauts.
That’s why the baseline for success does not have to be glamorous. If Cal’s offense can score, the defense just has to avoid getting overwhelmed.
Duke won the ACC last year while ranking 14th in the conference in scoring defense at 29.4 points allowed per game. So the lesson is obvious: you can survive some ugly numbers if the rest of the team holds up.
For Cal, discipline is the key. Avoid the busts.
Limit the free yards. Keep the game manageable.
A top-half finish in the ACC in scoring defense - top eight - and allowing fewer than 26 points per game would qualify as a successful season for this group, and it would likely point toward eight or nine wins. That target is not out of reach.
Ten ACC teams allowed fewer than 26 points per game in 2025. At the bottom, Syracuse and Boston College gave up more than 32 per game and both finished 1-7 in league play.
Cal allowed 27.2 points per game last season and still finished 7-6. And while this year’s offense has a chance to be productive, nobody is expecting a repeat of the 2015 group led by Jared Goff and Sonny Dykes. That team put up big numbers and still allowed 30.7 points per game while going 8-5.
So the formula for 2026 is pretty clear: Cal’s defense does not need to be dominant, just steady enough to hold up its end. A middle-of-the-pack ACC defense would be enough to count as a win.
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