Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele’s future at Cal is suddenly one of the biggest questions hanging over a season that has gone sideways.
A year after his freshman breakout had people projecting him as a first-round pick in the 2028 NFL draft, Sagapolutele has not delivered the same kind of production in 2026. Cal sits at 3-6, well off last season’s 7-5 regular-season mark before the bowl loss, and the quarterback’s name keeps coming up every time the Bears’ struggles are discussed.
That makes the obvious next question unavoidable: will he still be in Berkeley in 2027?
“Oh, I believe he can come back,” Cal general manager Ron Rivera said, “and again we’ll see what happens. I don’t want to put words in anybody’s mouth. The biggest thing that’s important right now is what’s going on these next three weeks.”
That answer is a far cry from Rivera’s tone a year ago, when he sounded far more certain Sagapolutele would remain at Cal for 2026 based on the deal the program had assembled for him.
The uncertainty got louder after last week’s report by The Athletic, which said it is “unlikely” Sagapolutele will be at Cal next season.
The numbers tell the story of a quarterback who has not matched his 2025 pace. Last season, Sagapolutele ranked third in the ACC in passing yards per game at 265.7 and fifth in touchdown passes with 18. This year, he is 10th in passing yards per game at 218.9 and 11th in touchdown passes with 11 in eight games, with three still to play.
And yet there’s a wrinkle: his passer rating is actually slightly better this season, sitting at 132.34 compared with 131.61 last year.
There are plenty of reasons the raw production has dipped, beginning with an offensive line that has not held up and a running game that has offered almost no help. Cal is 137th out of 138 FBS teams in rushing yards per game, and that kind of imbalance makes life miserable for any quarterback. Still, those same issues were present last year, too.
The bigger differences are on the other side of the ball and on the sideline. Cal’s defense was better in 2025 than it has been this season, and the coaching staff is different.
Rivera and head coach Tosh Lupoi both addressed where Sagapolutele stands now.
“I think Jaron has had his moments. I think a big part of it is you’d like to see more consistent moments. And I think part of it has been the development of not just him but the players around him, and again, these next three games are important as far as judging him and being able to make a decision on certain aspects of what we’re doing.”
Lupoi said his focus is on putting Sagapolutele in the best possible position.
“Just highlighting how capable he is, that’s my goal. That’s what’s really been encouraging, exciting, with some solutions from a holistic and an entirety of our offense, all three phases, but when Jaron’s out there leading the offense, seeing him rip it the last two weeks, hopefully that’s going to be demonstrated game day, but I’m just about developing, growing, and all of us.
So putting him, our offense in the best position. And it starts with me, ensuring that we do that.
There’s certain things he’s done an excellent job at, trying to highlight those things over and over.”
The turning point in this season came in the seventh game, when Sagapolutele was effectively benched. He had missed the previous week because of a concussion suffered against UNLV, but he was available against Wake Forest.
Even so, Lupoi went with Jackson Brouseau, the Colorado State transfer who had played well in the upset of Virginia Tech the week before. Sagapolutele didn’t enter until second-half mop-up duty in a 41-7 loss.
He has handled the situation professionally, but the move to Brouseau made the message clear.
This kind of sophomore step back is not unheard of. Jayden Daniels had a huge freshman season at Arizona State in 2019, then his play dropped off in 2021 after the shortened 2020 campaign. After throwing 17 touchdown passes and two interceptions in 2019, Daniels threw 10 touchdowns and 10 interceptions in 2021, and many Arizona State fans wanted him benched.
Daniels transferred to LSU after that season, put up solid numbers in 2022, then exploded for 40 touchdown passes and a Heisman Trophy in 2023. He became the No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft and started for the Washington Commanders as a rookie.
Fernando Mendoza’s path is another reminder of how quickly a quarterback’s trajectory can change. He went from being a solid Cal quarterback to a Heisman Trophy winner at Indiana and the No. 1 overall NFL draft pick in 2026.
Sagapolutele could decide that a fresh start with a new team, new coaching staff and new cast around him is the kind of move that changes everything. That would depend, of course, on whether elite programs still believe he can be a difference-maker.
For now, Cal’s final three games may end up shaping the answer. The Bears visit Virginia on Saturday, host Stanford next week and close the season against Pitt in Berkeley. Those games could end up being a major chapter in Sagapolutele’s story.
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