Cal’s path through the rest of the season is already looking rough, and last weekend did the Bears no favors.
California is 2-3 after a 39-31 loss to UNLV, and now turns to Virginia Tech (4-1) this Saturday in Berkeley. Beyond that, the Bears’ remaining ACC schedule comes with some ugly numbers from ESPN Analytics, and the weekend results for those future opponents only sharpen the picture.
Virginia Tech’s trip to the finish line against Wake Forest came down to the final kick, but the Hokies escaped when John Love missed a 36-yard field goal on the last play. Ethan Grunkemeyer threw for 434 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions for Virginia Tech, which now gets Cal with ESPN Analytics giving the Hokies a 71.9% chance to win.
Wake Forest, meanwhile, keeps stacking up results that suggest it may be the second-best team in the ACC. After pushing Miami hard and upsetting then-No.
16 Louisville on the road, the Demon Deacons blasted Stanford for their largest margin of victory ever in an ACC game. Gio Lopez was the engine, running for three touchdowns and throwing for two more, and ESPN Analytics gives Wake Forest a 78.0% chance to beat Cal in two weeks.
The schedule does not get friendlier after that. No.
24 SMU had a surprisingly tense afternoon at home, leading only 13-10 at halftime and sitting on just 19 points until less than five minutes remained before finishing with a win. Kevin Jennings passed for 160 yards, ran for minus-7 yards, and still accounted for three touchdowns.
ESPN Analytics says SMU has an 87.7% chance to beat Cal.
North Carolina State added another chaotic ACC result, beating Louisville 31-28 in a game that produced 978 yards of offense. CJ Bailey threw for 373 yards, two touchdowns and one interception, and the Wolfpack closed it out with a 10-play drive that used the final 3:49. ESPN Analytics gives NC State an 80.2% chance to beat Cal.
Virginia’s season has gone the wrong direction after an early No. 25 ranking, and the Cavaliers were hammered by Florida State after leading 7-0 in the first quarter. Beau Pribula was sacked 10 times and finished 14-for-32 for 168 yards, while Ashton Daniels ran for 136 yards and five rushing touchdowns for the Seminoles. ESPN Analytics has Virginia at 86.7% to beat Cal.
Stanford’s brief lift from beating Georgia Tech disappeared in a hurry in a lopsided loss to Wake Forest. The Cardinal allowed 519 yards and got only 136 passing yards from Davis Warren, a huge drop from his 396-yard day the week before. ESPN Analytics still gives Cal a 75% chance to beat Stanford.
Pitt, which will face Cal in the regular-season finale, stayed unbeaten but took a major hit when Mason Heintschel suffered a torn ACL and is out for the year. Holden Geriner replaced him and went 8-for-12 for 78 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions, and will start Saturday against North Carolina. ESPN Analytics gives Pitt an 82.1% chance to beat Cal.
In Other News...
Cal Offense Suddenly Has One Big Question Before Virginia Tech
Cals offense looked a lot different in the second half against UNLV, when Tosh Lupoi handed the play-calling duties to Pat McCann and the unit responded with 24 points after halftime. The switch gave Cal a needed spark and, just as important, it introduced a new layer of uncertainty heading into a tougher matchup with Virginia Tech, where the Bears are still searching for the right rhythm and identity on that side of the ball.
Virginia Tech coach James Franklin acknowledged the uncertainty around what Cal might do next, pointing both to the change in who is calling the plays and to the absence of several key players from the Bears roster. For Cal, the question is no longer whether the offense can look more productive than it did early against UNLV. It is whether that second-half burst was a one-game adjustment or the start of something more stable when the Bears take the field again. [Read more 🡒]
Mark Madsen Is Selling Bigger Cal Expectations Despite Major Changes
Mark Madsen is still working his way back after knee surgery, but the Cal coach made time to join ACC media day remotely as the Bears begin shaping a new season around a different-looking roster. Coming off a 22-win campaign, Cal has plenty of reason to talk bigger in year two under Madsen, even with several transfers gone and new recruits arriving to fill out the rotation.
The challenge now is turning that optimism into production, especially with so much of last seasons offense having to be replaced. Madsen has made clear the Bears expect more, and the first chance to see how the pieces fit comes Nov. 2, when Cal opens against Adams State at Haas Pavilion. [Read more 🡒]
Cal Made A Desperate Offensive Change Fans Need To Watch
Cals offense was already searching for answers when the UNLV game hit halftime, and the Bears made a change that spoke volumes about how urgently they wanted a spark. Tosh Lupoi confirmed that playcalling duties moved from offensive coordinator Jordan Somerville to pass game coordinator Pat McCann in the middle of the game, a switch made as the Bears were chasing the scoreboard and trying to steady an attack that had not been meeting expectations.
The timing only added to the sense of pressure around the decision, with Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele exiting after a concussion and athletic director Ron Rivera acknowledging the offense had fallen short of what the program wanted. McCanns adjustment did help Cal briefly wrest control back, even if the finish still went UNLVs way, and it leaves the Bears with an obvious question hanging over the next stretch: whether this was a one-game rescue or the start of something more permanent. [Read more 🡒]