What matters most for Cal now is the stretch run.
The Bears are sitting at 3-3 overall and 2-1 in ACC play after Saturday’s 25-20 upset of 10-point favorite Virginia Tech, and that result at least bought some breathing room heading into a brutal six-game finish. First-year coach Tosh Lupoi’s team has no soft landing ahead, starting Saturday night at Memorial Stadium against No. 21 Wake Forest.
And Wake Forest is rolling. The Demon Deacons are 5-1 and 3-1 in the ACC, with the only team hotter in the league being third-ranked Miami. They just handled NC State 38-14 on the road, their biggest road win against the Wolfpack since 1943, and the week before that they blasted Stanford 57-3, their most lopsided win over any opponent since 1941.
From there, Cal’s schedule gets even harsher. The Bears head into a four-week stretch that includes three road trips, with games at No.
24 SMU, NC State and Virginia. Then comes the Big Game at home against Stanford, followed by Pitt in the finale.
Take Stanford out of the equation - and the Cardinal have been outscored 195-23 in their four losses - and Cal is staring at five opponents with a combined 21-8 record. Three of those games will require nearly 12,500 miles of round-trip travel.
Still, the more interesting question is how far this team has come, or hasn’t, since a year ago.
The broad view around Cal is positive. Lupoi has recruited well, attendance has risen, and the university administration appears more engaged. The program’s offseason decisions under football general manager Ron Rivera are not being second-guessed.
But at the halfway point, the record tells a different story. Cal was 4-2 through six games last season. This year, the Bears are 3-3.
Last fall’s team finished the regular season 3-3 after that point and pulled off notable wins over Louisville and SMU. It also stumbled badly in a 31-10 Big Game loss to a poor Stanford team, a defeat that led to Justin Wilcox’s firing. A 35-31 loss to Hawaii in the Hawaii Bowl left Cal at 7-6, which means this year’s team needs to go 4-3 the rest of the way, including a bowl berth, just to match that mark.
There are reasons for encouragement in the numbers, even if the overall picture is still mixed. The Bears have already topped 40,000 fans three times this season, and the opener against UCLA was a Memorial Stadium sellout at 54,283. The offense has also shown life lately, putting up 49 points over the last six quarters and averaging 433.5 yards across the past two games while juggling quarterbacks.
Saturday’s win over Virginia Tech was especially timely. It kept Cal from slipping into just its second 2-4 start in 13 years, and it came despite manpower issues. The defense held the Hokies to 21 points below their season average.
Quarterback remains a story line. Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele is working through concussion protocol this week, and Jackson Brousseau has done more than hold things together in his place. Over the past game and a half, he has thrown for 521 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions.
The running game, though, is a major problem. Cal is averaging just 79 rushing yards over its last three games and ranks 134th in FBS.
Defensively, the Bears have been more solid against the pass than the overall record might suggest, especially with seven interceptions in the bank. But the run defense has been a leak. Excluding the Wagner game, Cal has given up nearly 5.3 yards per rush and ranks 109th nationally against the run.
Special teams have had their own limits. Towns McGough was 2 for 2 against Virginia Tech, but the Bears still haven’t made a field goal longer than 38 yards this season.
There is also the matter of Kingston Lopa. The safety, who leads the nation with five interceptions, is expected back and could give the Bears a needed lift.
And then there are the penalties, which keep showing up at the worst times. Cal has piled up 251 yards in infractions over the past two weeks and has already had four games with at least 80 yards in penalties.
So the second half begins with a simple reality: Cal has some momentum, but the margin for error is thin, and the schedule is about to get a lot less forgiving.
In Other News...
Cal Faces One Huge Question Before Another Tough Home Test
Cals upset of Virginia Tech gave the Bears a much-needed lift, but it also set up another difficult home assignment with far less certainty attached to it. Wake Forest arrives ranked No. 21 and carrying the profile of a team that has handled ACC competition well, while Cal is trying to build on one of its best wins of the season and keep momentum from getting lost in the shuffle.
The bigger question for the Bears is whether some of their most important pieces can be back in the lineup. Quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele and safety Kingson Lopa were nearly cleared last week and are now being watched closely heading into another test against a team that has been piling up quality wins. Even with the confidence that comes from the Virginia Tech result, Cals margin for error is thin with a 9.5-point underdog standing across from it. [Read more 🡒]
Cal Faces A Brutal ACC Road Twist Before Ranked SMU Trip
Cals next ACC road assignment comes with a tricky schedule wrinkle, as the league announced that the Bears Oct. 24 game at No. 24 SMU will kick off early in the day. Cal is coming off a win over Virginia Tech and still has a ranked night game against No. 21 Wake Forest ahead of it, so the trip to Dallas will arrive with little time to reset before another major conference test.
SMU has also made itself a difficult place to visit since entering the ACC before the 2024 season, with a strong home record and no conference home loss to date. For Cal, the challenge is not just the opponent but the timing, with the Bears staring at a short turnaround and a road game against one of the leagues tougher home teams. [Read more 🡒]
Cal Finally Found A Reason For Hope Up Front
Cals offense got a much-needed lift up front in the Bears 25-20 victory over Virginia Tech, where the offensive line drew praise for the way it handled the moment. Center Bastian Swinney and the rest of the front gave quarterback Jackson Brousseau the kind of clean pocket that had been missing, and the payoff was obvious in a passing game that finally had room to breathe.
The improvement carried added weight after the rough outing against UNLV, when the line was under plenty of scrutiny. Swinney pointed to mindset and leadership as the biggest reasons the group steadied itself this week, and for Cal, that mattered as much as anything else in a win that offered some real hope for what the Bears can be with protection holding up. [Read more 🡒]