Cal’s win over Syracuse looked strange on the field, and the numbers only make it stranger.
The Bears were outgained 437-249, ran 27 fewer plays than Syracuse, had nearly half as many first downs, and lost the possession battle. Cal averaged 4 years per play and was still down by four with less than five minutes left. By the down-to-down numbers alone, a team with that profile would be expected to win only about 10% of the time.
Yet the Bears escaped with a victory, and Kingston Lopa was the reason.
Cal Football called Lopa the national interceptions leader after a night in which he finished with five tackles, three interceptions and a pick-six. That performance drove the Bears’ win probability sharply upward. Once turnover margin is factored in, Cal’s estimated win probability jumps to 54.7.
A historical comparison shows just how unusual the result was. Using a logistic regression built from more than 12,000 FBS games between 2014 and 2025, the Cal-Syracuse game ranks third-lowest among Cal’s 65 wins since 2014 in “process”-based postgame win probability. Only Cal’s 2020 win over Oregon, at 6%, and the 2018 win over USC, at around 10%, graded as less consistent with a win under the model.
That ranking is not about betting lines or preseason expectations. It is not trying to label the biggest upset on paper. Instead, it asks a simpler question: based on how the teams actually played, which Cal wins looked least like wins?
Saturday belongs near the top of that list because the Bears did not control the game through steady offense or clean efficiency. They needed the defense to flip it, and Lopa did exactly that.
The play-level win probability model from cbfastR gives Lopa’s three interceptions a combined 40.7 percentage points of win probability added. That would place the outing fourth among Cal games since 2014, behind Ashtyn Davis against Arizona in 2017, Luke Ferrelli against Boston College in 2025, and Nohl Williams against Auburn in 2024.
And the raw production backed up the model’s praise. Lopa became the first Cal player with three interceptions in a game since Jaylinn Hawkins in the 2018 Cheez-It Bowl. He also had a 53-yard return, a go-ahead defensive touchdown, and the game-sealing pick.
There was at least some encouraging news beyond the oddity of the win. Coming off the UCLA game, Cal cleaned up one of its biggest issues by not turning the ball over after giving it away three times against UCLA. The Bears also held Syracuse to fewer rushing yards.
So yes, it was a weird one. But for Cal, it was still a win - and, as the numbers make clear, a wildly improbable one.
In Other News...
Cal Has A Chance To Fix One Concern Before Clemson Looms
After opening ACC play with a win at Syracuse, Cal comes home this week to face Wagner with a chance to tighten a few things up before Clemson appears on the schedule. The Bears have been boosted by sophomore safety Kingston Lopa, whose ball production has stood out early, and by running back Adam Mohammed, who has emerged as one of the leagues more productive rushers.
Wagner, an FCS program from Staten Island, arrives after a heavy loss to James Madison and has not beaten a Power 4 opponent. Redshirt freshman quarterback Benjamin Newman leads the Seahawks offense, but for Cal the bigger question is whether this game can serve as a clean tune-up while the Bears continue sorting out the pieces around their next stretch of conference play. [Read more 🡒]
Cal Showed Off A Dangerous New Edge In Blowout Win
Cal left little doubt in its blowout win over Wagner, leaning on a physical edge and an offense that kept finding answers all game. Jaron Keawe Sagapolutele helped direct the attack, Adam Mohammed found the end zone multiple times, and the Bears kept stacking scoring drives while Wagner had trouble sustaining anything of its own.
The big-play element also showed up in a hurry, with Cal stretching the field and turning one explosive moment into a wider avalanche. Wagner did manage to score once, but most of the afternoon belonged to a Bears team that looked faster, stronger, and much harder to handle than the opposition, a promising sign for a group trying to prove it can bring more than just efficiency on offense. [Read more 🡒]
Cals Offense Just Sent Clemson A Message Before A Bigger Test
A tune-up like this can only say so much, but Cal still did exactly what a good team is supposed to do against an overmatched opponent. In a 49-7 win over Wagner, Adam Mohammed gave the Bears an early jolt, Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele kept the offense humming through the air and the defense never let the game drift anywhere uncomfortable. The result was the kind of complete afternoon that lets a staff spend less time correcting mistakes and more time feeling out what this offense can become.
Kingston Lopa also kept his breakout stretch rolling on the back end, finishing with five tackles, a pass breakup and his fifth interception of the season as Cal held Wagner to seven points. The bigger question now is whether the Bears can carry that rhythm into a far tougher stage, with Clemson next on the schedule and far less margin for the kind of early burst that turned this one into a runaway. [Read more 🡒]