Cal’s offense looked sharper against Virginia Tech, and the biggest change wasn’t simply that the Bears threw more. It was when, where and why they threw.
By raw volume, the passing game wasn’t a dramatic departure. Cal’s offense used passes on about 62% of its plays Saturday, which was basically in line with its rate through the first five games of the season. On the surface, that doesn’t scream transformation.
But raw pass rate only tells part of the story. A team can throw because the situation forces it to - think third-and-long or time pressure - or because the play caller is leaning into aggression.
To separate those possibilities, a national pass-rate model was built using about 89,000 plays from the first five weeks of the 2026 season, excluding Cal. That model accounted for down, yards to go, field position, score margin, time remaining, quarter and whether the offense was at home.
Using that lens, Cal was already a pass-heavy offense. Its pass rate over expected, or PROE, through five games sat at +11.1 percentage points.
Against Virginia Tech, it was +9.7 points. In other words, if anything, the Bears were a little less pass-forward in situation-adjusted terms than they had been early in the year.
The most noticeable shift came on first down. Cal threw on 21 of 32 first-down plays against Virginia Tech, a 65.6% rate that jumped well above its 52.3% first-down pass rate from the first five games. Those passes were productive, too: 0.61 expected points added per play, 9.6 yards per attempt and six gains of at least 15 yards on 21 throws.
That’s where the numbers really pop. On first down against Virginia Tech, other offenses in similar spots would have been expected to pass about 45.6% of the time.
Cal went much more aggressive than that, posting a first-down PROE of +20 percentage points. During weeks 1-5, Cal’s first-down PROE was only +8.8 points.
The results on those throws also stood out compared with the earlier season. First-down passes against Virginia Tech produced 0.61 EPA per play, up from 0.11 over weeks 1-5.
The average gain rose from 6.7 yards to 9.6. The median play improved from 2 yards to 4.
And the explosive-play rate - gains of at least 15 yards - climbed from 13.8% to 28.6%.
That’s probably the strongest evidence that the playcalling itself improved. Cal didn’t just choose to throw more on first down; it found and executed passes that raised the floor and lifted the ceiling at the same time.
The other obvious wrinkle was the middle of the field. On passes where depth and direction could be parsed from the play description, 15 of 42 Virginia Tech targets went to the short middle, or 35.7%. Over the first five games, only 23 of 205 classified targets, or 11.2%, were directed there.
Those short-middle throws were a lot more effective Saturday, averaging 8.7 yards and 0.45 EPA. Earlier in the season, that same area produced just 4.2 yards per target and minus-0.54 EPA.
There is one important caveat: those location labels come from play descriptions, so they should be taken with a grain of salt. Still, the trend points to a meaningful question for what comes next.
If Cal has shown it can attack inside on early downs, opposing linebackers and safeties are going to try to close those windows. The next step is whether Cal has a counter ready.
The hope is that the Bears can keep Wake Forest’s defense guessing and punish the adjustment.
A second model offers another way to judge the playcalling: whether the chosen call matched the situation well. This one estimated expected EPA for passes and runs separately using the same observable game and play conditions, then compared the value of the call Cal actually made with the value of the better option.
Against Virginia Tech, Cal picked the higher-value call 56.3% of the time. Over the first five games, that rate was 48.7%. The average estimated opportunity cost - the gap between the chosen play and the higher-valued alternative - also fell, from 0.075 EPA per play to 0.060.
Those numbers point in the right direction, though the model leaves out plenty. Even so, the broad takeaway is clear: Cal’s Virginia Tech playcalling lined up more often with what had worked better, on average, in similar situations.
The real question now is whether that carries forward. If the early-down aggression keeps working, the best sign may be in the third-down distances that follow.
And beyond that, the next defense will have the same tape. The true test for the play caller is whether Cal already has an answer when those adjustments come.
In Other News...
Cals QB Outlook Just Shifted At A Crucial Time
Cal got a significant boost under center heading into Saturdays home game against No. 21 Wake Forest, with Jaron-Keawe Sagapolotele upgraded from questionable to probable. The quarterbacks status suggests he is likely to return after missing last week with a concussion, a timely shift for a Bears offense that needed clarity at the position as it prepares for a ranked opponent.
The rest of the availability report brought a mixed bag for Cal. Running back Adam Mohammed was downgraded to doubtful, while safety Kingston Lopa moved up to probable, giving the Bears a better look on defense even as the backfield remains unsettled. Wake Forest also got encouraging news of its own, with wide receiver Carlos Hernandez and defensive end Langston Hardy upgraded to probable. [Read more 🡒]
Cal May Have Found A Clutch Scorer As Offense Still Looks Shaky
Cals preseason tune-up against Loyola Marymount did little to hide the bigger offensive questions, but it did offer a glimpse of a player who might thrive when the game tightens late. Nojus Indruaitis delivered the decisive bucket in the closing moments of a 60-59 win, giving the Bears a needed bright spot in a game that was ugly in stretches but still ended with a confidence-building finish.
Mark Madsen pointed to Indruaitis and others who helped Cal hang around despite the rough shooting night, which is the part that matters most this early in November. The Bears still have another exhibition left before the regular season begins, and for a team searching for more reliable scoring, the final seconds provided at least one encouraging answer while the broader offensive picture remains unsettled. [Read more 🡒]
Wake Forest Brings A Major Depth Question Into Berkeley
Wake Forest is heading into Berkeley with its injury report carrying plenty of weight, and California has reason to keep an eye on it. The Demon Deacons have six players listed as out, leaving their depth thinner than usual in spots that matter most, especially up front where line rotations can shape both protection and the run game. For a Cal defense that will be watching how the visitors handle pressure, the availability of the players listed as probable could end up being part of the early-game story.
Among the names to watch are wide receiver Carlos Hernandez and defensive lineman Langston Hardy, both listed as probable heading into the matchup. Wake Forest will need to sort through personnel issues on both sides of the ball, and that makes the health of those key contributors even more important as the week unfolds. If the Deacons can patch together their offensive and defensive fronts, theyll give themselves a chance to keep the game manageable, but the margin for error is already looking slim. [Read more 🡒]