Cal enters 2026 with a preseason number that leaves plenty of room for a surprise.
The Golden Bears were slotted 12th in the ACC preseason media poll, but the last two seasons have offered a pretty clear reminder that those projections don’t always hold up. A handful of teams have already turned modest expectations into breakout years, and Cal is hoping to be next.
Indiana is the easiest parallel for Bears fans to grab onto. The Hoosiers were pegged 17th in an 18-team Big Ten media poll in 2024, then rolled to an 8-1 conference record and a spot in the College Football Playoff.
The comparison fits because Indiana, like Cal now, had a new head coach in Curt Cignetti and a long stretch of uneven results behind it. Indiana had only two winning conference seasons in the previous 30 years and went 3-24 in Big Ten play across 2021, 2022 and 2023.
Cal, meanwhile, has not posted a winning conference record since 2009.
There’s also Arizona State, which went from last place in the 2024 Big 12 preseason poll to a conference championship. The Sun Devils were picked 16th, then won the Big 12, earned the No. 4 seed and a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff.
That run came in Kenny Dillingham’s second season as a head coach at any level, after he had been the offensive coordinator at Oregon. Cal’s Tosh Lupoi is in his first season as a head coach at any level after serving as a defensive coordinator at Oregon.
Vanderbilt supplied another reminder in 2025. The Commodores were projected 13th in the 16-team SEC preseason media poll, then finished 10-3 overall and 6-2 in league play, just one game behind fifth place. It was Vanderbilt’s first winning conference record since 2012, and behind Heisman Trophy finalist quarterback Diego Pavia, the Commodores ended up ranked 15th in the final AP poll.
Cal is hoping its own quarterback can drive a similar leap. Sophomore Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele is the player the Bears believe can help push them into the top 25.
Virginia’s 2025 season adds one more example. Picked 14th in the ACC preseason poll, the Cavaliers finished with the league’s best record at 7-1, one game ahead of everyone else in the conference, including Miami. It was only their second winning conference season in 14 years, and it gave them the first 11-win season in school history.
The Cavaliers’ formula was winning the tight ones. They took three ACC games in overtime, edged a nonconference opponent by two points, and won their bowl game by six.
Cal’s situation is harder to pin down because the program is leaning on a head coach and two coordinators who have never held those roles before, plus a roster with plenty of newcomers in important spots. That makes forecasting tricky.
Still, the ACC doesn’t appear especially deep this year, and Cal avoids two of the three ACC teams ranked in the preseason AP top 25, Miami and Louisville. If the Bears get a few breaks, they could follow the same path as Indiana, Arizona State, Vanderbilt and Virginia - four teams that were overlooked in the AP preseason poll and still found their way to breakthrough seasons. Cal, unlike those teams, did receive two voting points in this year’s preseason AP poll.
In Other News...
Ron Rivera Sounds Off As College Eligibility Fight Hits UCLA Rivalry
The latest college football eligibility fight has quickly become more than a paperwork dispute, and it now has ripple effects right across the West Coast. A July 31 Colorado district court ruling gave class of 2022 high school players an extra year to use, opening the door for some athletes to pursue new college homes after already brushing up against the pro game, whether through preseason work or other NFL exposure. In response, the sports biggest conferences moved to tighten the rules around who can still suit up, trying to draw a clearer line between college eligibility and professional ambition.
For UCLA and its rivals, the issue has become another wrinkle in a messy summer full of legal filings and temporary court protections. Some players remain in limbo because of restraining orders and injunctions in separate cases, which has left programs waiting to see who will actually be cleared to practice and play once the dust settles. Ron Rivera has weighed in on the broader problem, and the dispute is still evolving in a way that could keep changing roster plans well into the season. [Read more 🡒]
Cal Has Several Newcomers Who Could Change More Than Fans Realize
Tosh Lupoi has spent his first months back in Berkeley reshaping Cals roster through the transfer portal, and the Bears now have 33 new contributors in the mix for the upcoming season. Among the newcomers drawing attention are wide receiver Chase Hendricks, linebacker Tristan Jernigan, running back Carter Vargas and tight end Taimane Purcell, a group that gives the staff options at several spots and a chance to add speed, physicality and depth where the roster needed it most.
Hendricks brings a playmaking profile that should fit into the passing game, while Vargas and Purcell arrive with the kind of varied backgrounds coaches often try to turn into immediate utility. Jernigan adds another layer to the defensive picture, and his presence underscores how much competition is about to hit the Bears at every level. For Cal, the question is no longer just how many newcomers can help, but how quickly the most intriguing ones can make their way into meaningful roles in 2026. [Read more 🡒]
Ron Rivera Is Suddenly At The Center Of Cals Football Push
Ron Rivera has quickly become one of the more interesting voices around Cals football future, and not just because of the usual game-day topics. In a recent press availability, he touched on attendance, alumni engagement and college football eligibility, while also framing the broader challenge in front of the program: keeping the operation financially stable, getting former players and donors more involved and making sure the Bears are ready for what comes next.
What stood out was how much of the conversation centered on the universitys football identity and the role Rivera is playing in shaping it. He talked about the need to rebuild the connections around the program and stressed the importance of the bigger picture in football-related decisions, which is part of why his presence carries so much weight right now. For Cal, the next stretch is about more than one season, and Rivera has suddenly become central to how those conversations are being handled. [Read more 🡒]