Virginia’s season has been a study in contradictions, and that’s the backdrop for Saturday’s matchup with Cal in Charlottesville.
The Bears and Cavaliers both arrive with three-game losing streaks, both sitting at 3-6 and 4-5 respectively, and both trying to stop the slide before it gets any uglier. Kickoff is set for 12:30 p.m. PT on the ACC Network.
To get a clearer read on what Cal is walking into, we spoke this week with Xander Tilock, who covers Virginia for Cavaliers on SI. His answers painted a team that still has talent, but hasn’t come close to putting it together consistently.
The biggest frustration around Virginia, Tilock said, is that the explanation changes depending on which part of the team you’re looking at.
“That is certainly the million-dollar question. I come back to this theme of conflicting truths. And coach Tony Elliot has some conflicting truths this season.”
That tension has only grown after Virginia’s 51-7 loss to Wake Forest, which Tilock said was the program’s worst since 2013. Elliot told reporters afterward that there were only 2 or 3 plays when the Cavaliers were not properly prepared. But the problems have gone well beyond a handful of mistakes: 28 sacks allowed, uneven quarterback play, inconsistent production from the running backs and repeated mental errors from a veteran roster.
Quarterback Beau Pribula is another flashpoint. Virginia made a change during the Wake Forest loss, inserting Pitt transfer Eli Holstein, but Tilock said the fan base remains split over whether Pribula should still be the starter.
“This is probably the biggest point of contention from the fan-base perspective - Elliot continues to insist Beau Pribula is doing everything the coaching staff has asked of him. However, Pribula hasn’t had a game with over 160 yards and two touchdowns since September.”
Tilock added that Elliot can’t be blamed for every issue, especially with injuries to the top two receivers and the offensive line’s struggles. Still, the numbers have not been flattering for Pribula.
“Pribula’s starting spot shouldn’t be secure, honestly, from perspective, based on the statistics. However, it doesn’t look like Eli Holstein will be playing against Cal.”
Virginia’s run game has been just as uneven. The Cavaliers have averaged nearly 196 rushing yards in their four wins, but only 105 in their five losses, and Tilock traced that drop back to the play-calling.
“It starts with offensive play-calling,” Tilock said, pointing to offensive coordinator Des Kitchings, who last season added plenty of flourishes to the pro-style attack. “It seems like all of that’s disappeared.”
Xavier Brown, who tore his ACL a year ago, appears healthy but hasn’t been used much. Jekail Middlebrook is mostly healthy, and Tilock noted that he was fifth nationally in pass receptions by a running back last season. That part of the offense, he said, has gone missing.
On defense, linebacker Kam Robinson has been working his way back from the ACL injury he suffered last November. He was a preseason All-ACC pick, but Tilock said it took longer than expected for him to regain his form.
“He’s only started to look like himself the last couple games,” Tilock said. “When he’s on, Kam Robinson is the best linebacker in the ACC, period.”
Opponents have adjusted, too.
“Teams have realized they can pick on somebody else.”
Even with injuries that have “ravaged” the unit, Tilock said the defense has mostly held up, though it has been hurt by over-pursuit that has opened the door for quarterbacks to scramble.
“I still think this defense has the capability of being one of the best in the ACC.”
And then there’s punter Daniel Sparks, who may be the most dependable piece Virginia has right now. At 6-foot-6 and 188 pounds, Sparks has punted more than 7 miles in his college career and leads the nation at 50.8 yards per punt, with 19 punts downed inside the 20.
“If you had to pick a team MVP for Virginia, it is easily Daniel Sparks. Statistically, he’s probably the best punter in the country . . . no head coach wants to say that because it means the offense isn’t doing so well.”
Tilock said Sparks treats punting like a science project.
“Daniel Sparks can flip the field on anybody. (He) is 100 percent the best punter in program history.”
In Other News...
Cal Faces A Bigger Question Than Virginia In Must-Win Road Test
Cals trip to Charlottesville arrives with far more at stake than just snapping a three-game skid. Both the Bears and Virginia have stumbled into this matchup with disappointing records that have dulled their postseason hopes, but Cals path is the more unforgiving one. Saturday at Scott Stadium is effectively a must-win, because the Bears need to run the table from here to stay in bowl contention, and that puts every decision around the roster under a brighter spotlight.
Virginias side of the equation is clearer, with quarterback Beau Pribula having put up strong numbers even as the Cavaliers have struggled to convert that into wins. Cal, meanwhile, is still dealing with uncertainty around key pieces, including Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, and that makes the bigger question less about the opponent than about what the Bears can realistically count on down the stretch. For a team already chasing the margins, the margin for error is gone. [Read more 🡒]
Cals Familiar Second-Half Problem Is Already Raising Bigger Concerns
Cals latest loss to No. 21 USC fit an all-too-familiar pattern for a team trying to steady itself in the early going. The Bears hung around for stretches but again ran into trouble with consistency, particularly on the glass, and head coach Mark Madsen was left pointing to the same kinds of issues that have made these games feel frustratingly similar.
The absence of starting center Lee Dort has only sharpened the concern inside the program, because Cal has not had its usual interior presence while trying to navigate a tough stretch of opponents. The Bears now get a chance to reset at home against Utah Tech, but the bigger question is whether they can clean up the rebounding and execution problems before the schedule forces them to keep answering for the same second-half lapses. [Read more 🡒]
Cal Just Got A Very Different ACC Path To The Playoff
The College Football Playoff is headed for another overhaul, and for Cal it changes the road map in a big way. The CFP Management Committee voted unanimously to expand the field to 24 teams beginning in the 2027-28 season, part of a new five-year, $1.7 billion deal with ESPN that keeps the network as the exclusive broadcast partner through the 2031-32 season.
Just as notable for the ACC and its newest West Coast members, the format change also wipes out the conference championship games that have long helped shape the postseason picture. The league has already confirmed that its 2023 title game in Charlotte will be the last under the current setup, leaving Cal and everyone else in the conference to navigate a very different path when the next era arrives. [Read more 🡒]