A year ago, Cal fans might have settled for hope. For 2026, they’re swinging bigger.
More than 150 predictions came in for Tosh’s first season leading Cal football, and the collective read was unusually upbeat. The Bears have been hanging around the 6- and 7-win range in recent years, but this round of fan forecasting points to a step forward if the optimism holds up. The only wrinkle: the fan base has been a little too generous before, overrating Cal by one win in both 2025 and 2024.
The clearest confidence is at the top of the schedule. Wagner drew a 96.9% win chance, while Leland Stanford Junior University came in at 83.8%.
The FCS matchup is the safest bet, as usual, but the Big Game number stands out too. LSJU is rated 61 in SP+ and sits one spot behind Cal, which helps explain why fans see that one as one of the more manageable games on the slate.
Even so, 84% might be a touch rosy.
The middle of the schedule is where things get messy in the best possible way for Cal. UCLA, at Syracuse, at UNLV, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, and Pitt all landed in the “lean Cal” bucket, with win chances ranging from 61.7% to 73.3%.
That group alone suggests four victories are on the table. Pair that with the two likely wins, and bowl eligibility starts looking very real.
Then come the games that could swing the season. Clemson, at SMU, at NC State, and at Virginia all checked in as toss-ups.
SMU looks like the biggest problem, with the source noting it should be the toughest threat to Miami’s ACC title hopes this season, while Clemson and Virginia are also in the hunt for the title game. NC State’s outlook has apparently taken a hit after being destroyed by Beau Pribula and Virginia on Saturday.
With four coin-flip games, the expectation is two wins from that stretch. Put it all together, and Cal gets to 8-4 for the first time since 2009.
One notable detail: nothing on the board dipped below 40%.
The projections add up to 7.86 wins, which is the highest preseason total in this series since it began in 2011. The Bears are favored in every game except SMU, a striking setup even if not every favorite tag turns into a win.
To get a cleaner picture of what those predictions mean, the season was simulated one million times. The setup was straightforward: a prediction was drawn at random for each game, then turned into a win or loss based on that game’s forecast, and the process repeated across all 12 games. That produced a full range of possible records, with eight wins emerging as the most likely finish.
There are plenty of eye-catching paths through the schedule. There’s a 15% chance Cal opens 5-0, a 15% chance it reaches 8-2 before the Big Game, and an 11% chance of finishing 10-2. The model gives Cal a 25% shot at 8-4, while 7-5 and 9-3 sit close behind at 21% and 20%, respectively.
The awards section followed, and the most optimistic prediction set produced a three-way tie for first: Old Blues. The most pessimistic group was much smaller; only three of the 150-plus submissions projected fewer than six wins, reinforcing the sense that this feels like a bowl-or-bust year. The closest-to-the-group honor went to The Voice of Reason.
Thanks to all who participated, and Go Bears!
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