Cal’s meeting with Wagner on Saturday is the kind of game that has become almost routine for Power Four programs. It’s also the kind of matchup that raises the same old question: does it actually make sense?
The Bears are not strangers to FCS opponents. In only two of the last 17 seasons has Cal gone without one, with 2016 and the four-game 2020 pandemic season as the exceptions. Cal is not set to play an FCS team next season, though Sacramento State - which meets Cal in the 2027 opener - was an FCS school until moving up to the FBS level this season.
This year’s Wagner game was put on the schedule in January 2025, when Justin Wilcox was still Cal’s head coach and Jim Knowlton was still the athletic director. Ron Rivera had not yet been named the football general manager, Tosh Lupoi had not yet become head coach, and Rich Lyons had been chancellor for only six months.
Whether Lupoi and Rivera keep that scheduling pattern going remains to be seen.
On paper, Saturday looks about as lopsided as it gets. Cal has never lost to an FCS team and is 17-0 in those games since 2025.
Wagner, meanwhile, has never beaten an FBS opponent and is 0-22 against the higher level. Fan Duel lists Cal as a 58.5-point favorite.
That kind of game has its uses. Coaches like the built-in win, especially when every result matters for bowl hopes or job security. These games also let teams rest regulars, get younger players real snaps and test out pieces of the playbook without asking the starters to carry the whole load.
But there’s a flip side. If an FBS team gets pushed harder than expected, or worse, loses, the fallout can be ugly.
Confidence takes a hit. Questions start flying.
The whole thing suddenly looks like a bad idea.
Cal has lived with that risk before. In 2013, the Bears had to come from behind after trailing Portland State 30-27 in the third quarter before pulling out a 37-30 win.
And while an FCS upset still feels rare, it happens more often than people think. Since Division I-AA became an NCAA division in 1978, later renamed FCS in 2006, FCS teams have beaten FBS teams more than 500 times, according to FeartheFCS. This season alone, five FBS teams have already lost to FCS opponents.
The numbers still favor the bigger schools, though. FCS teams have won 13.2% of their games against FBS opponents overall, and that rate has dipped in recent years. Last year, FBS teams lost 3.2% of those games, after 5.0% in 2024 and 3.2% in 2023.
Some of those losses have come with real consequences. Jack Crowe was in his third year at Arkansas when the Razorbacks opened the 1992 season against The Citadel and lost 10-3.
Crowe was fired the next day. Another famous warning sign came in 2007, when Appalachian State stunned fifth-ranked Michigan in the opener.
Lloyd Carr took plenty of heat, especially after Michigan lost to Oregon the following week, 31-7. Appalachian State also went on to win its third straight FCS national title that year, while Michigan dropped four regular-season games.
Cal is hardly alone in scheduling an FCS opponent. This season, 125 of the 138 FBS teams have at least one such game on the calendar. In all, there are 127 FBS-FCS matchups this season, which would be the most ever.
The only 13 teams without one are UCLA, USC, Ohio State, Texas, Oklahoma, Michigan, Penn State, Notre Dame, Michigan State, Hawaii, UNLV, Oregon State and Tulane.
That kind of scheduling is easy to understand from a business standpoint. The FBS school usually hosts, the FCS team gets a guaranteed payout, and the home team gets another game’s worth of ticket revenue. Cal is paying Wagner $525,000 to visit Berkeley, according to Hero Sports.
For bigger brands, the math can be especially attractive. Georgia drew 93,033 fans for a 63-3 win over Tennessee State, and Tennessee had 101,915 in Neyland Stadium for its 56-9 win over Furman.
Cal probably won’t pack its stadium at that level on Saturday, but the Bears still stand to make money from the extra home date.
So the answer is probably yes - at least if the goal is a manageable home game and a win that should come with little drama. If the goal is building a College Football Playoff résumé, though, an FCS opponent doesn’t do much for that case.
How fans feel about it is another matter.
In Other News...
Cal Faces One Risk It Can't Ignore Against Wagner
Cal is getting ready to host Wagner, and the Bears would be wise not to let the opponents last result shape their own mindset. Wagner arrives after a rough stretch, but Tosh Lupoi and several Cal players have made clear the focus has stayed on preparation and on what the Bears need to clean up for themselves heading into the game.
Still, there is a built-in danger here for Cal if it treats this like a game that will take care of itself. Wagner coach Tom Masella has talked openly about leaning on a young roster and trying to steady a team that has already taken its share of recent losses, which means the Bears have to expect effort and urgency, not just a wounded opponent. For Cal, the bigger question is whether it can deliver the kind of complete performance that removes any doubt early and keeps the afternoon from turning into a grind. [Read more 🡒]
Cal's Next Opponent Arrives With One Big Problem To Solve
Wagner is heading into its trip to Cal carrying the kind of bruised feeling that can linger all week after a rough result, and play-by-play voice Marc Ernay said the players and coaches are likely dealing with frustration and embarrassment in the aftermath. Even so, the Seahawks are trying to reset quickly, with an eye on making the most of a matchup that gives them a chance to show something different against a bigger opponent.
For Wagner, the focus now shifts to what the next game can reveal about a program still being rebuilt under head coach Tom Masella, who has a long connection to the school. Ernay pointed to quarterback Benjamin Newman as one of the names to watch, along with several defensive standouts, as the Seahawks try to sort through both the challenge in front of them and the questions that still remain around how theyll line up when they arrive in Berkeley. [Read more 🡒]
Cal Momentum Builds As Former Bear And Key Leader Draw Attention
A Cal football season that has already kept a few different corners of the program in motion picked up another layer this week, with the Bears drawing attention both on and off the field. There is a new charitable ticket program on the calendar for select 2026 home games, giving nonprofit organizations access to complimentary seats, while commit Dane Webber also offered a look at the next wave of the program with a day-in-the-life video tied to the 2026 season.
Jordan Kings latest recognition adds to that buzz, giving Cal another player name to point to as the season conversation builds. And there is also a reminder of the programs history arriving soon with a film centered on former Bear John Tuggle, whose story is set to return to the spotlight around Christmas, a fitting callback for a fan base that tends to appreciate both the present-day momentum and the people who helped shape the programs past. [Read more 🡒]