BYU and Utah have emerged as two of the Big 12’s hottest playoff picks, but one national projection took things a step further: it has the in-state rivals meeting in the College Football Playoff.
That scenario showed up in ESPN’s Kyle Bonagura’s latest bracket, which has BYU slotted as the No. 8 seed and Utah as the No. 9 seed, setting up a first-round game at LaVell Edwards Stadium. Bonagura also projects BYU to reach the CFP quarterfinals before falling to No. 1 seed Georgia.
Across six bowl projections released since last weekend’s games, BYU appears in the playoff four times. Utah is not far behind, with three projections sending the Utes to the CFP field for the first time.
Texas Tech, the defending Big 12 champion, is the only other league team projected into the playoff right now. Two of the six projections include multiple Big 12 teams in the field.
Here’s how the latest forecasts shake out for the Big 12 after Week 5 of the 2026 season:
ESPN’s Mark Schlabach has BYU in the playoff as a No. 8 seed hosting No. 9 seed Oregon, while Utah lands in the Holiday Bowl against Pittsburgh.
On3’s Brett McMurphy puts BYU in the CFP as a No. 9 seed playing at No. 8 seed Indiana. In that projection, Utah goes to the Holiday Bowl to face Duke. McMurphy also has Texas Tech in the playoff as a No. 10 seed playing at No. 7 seed Ole Miss.
CBS Sports’ Brad Crawford takes a different route entirely, leaving BYU in the Alamo Bowl against UCLA. Utah, meanwhile, is projected into the CFP as a No. 8 seed hosting No. 9 seed Oregon.
College Football News sees Utah in the playoff as the No. 5 seed hosting No. 12 seed James Madison. That projection has Utah advancing to the quarterfinals before losing to No. 4 seed Miami in the Fiesta Bowl. BYU, in that bracket, lands in the Texas Bowl against Texas A&M.
Athlon Sports’ Steven Lassan has BYU in the CFP as the No. 11 seed playing at No. 6 seed Miami, while Utah is sent to the Las Vegas Bowl against Missouri.
The rest of the Big 12 board is just as varied. ESPN’s Bonagura has Arizona in the Sun Bowl against Virginia Tech, Arizona State in the Poinsettia Bowl against Fresno State, Baylor in the Liberty Bowl against Missouri, Cincinnati in the First Responder Bowl against North Texas, Houston in the Pop-Tarts Bowl against Pittsburgh, Iowa State in the Independence Bowl against Washington, Kansas State in the Texas Bowl against Texas A&M, Oklahoma State in the Cactus Bowl against Michigan, Texas Tech in the Alamo Bowl against Oregon, and UCF in the Armed Forces Bowl against Army.
Schlabach’s projections include Arizona vs. Clemson in the Sun Bowl, Arizona State vs.
Oregon State in the Poinsettia Bowl, Baylor vs. Oklahoma in the Liberty Bowl, Cincinnati vs.
New Mexico in the Armed Forces Bowl, Houston vs. Virginia Tech in the Pop-Tarts Bowl, Kansas State vs.
Penn State in the Cactus Bowl, Oklahoma State vs. Texas A&M in the Texas Bowl, Texas Tech vs.
UCLA in the Alamo Bowl, and UCF vs. Washington in the Independence Bowl.
McMurphy’s board has Arizona vs. Oregon State in the Poinsettia Bowl, Arizona State vs.
New Mexico in the New Mexico Bowl, Baylor vs. Mississippi State in the Texas Bowl, Cincinnati vs.
Michigan in the Cactus Bowl, Houston vs. Oregon in the Alamo Bowl, Iowa State vs.
Penn State in the Birmingham Bowl, Kansas State vs. Oklahoma in the Liberty Bowl, Oklahoma State vs.
SMU in the Pop-Tarts Bowl, UCF vs. Washington in the Independence Bowl, and West Virginia vs.
Florida State in the Gasparilla Bowl.
Crawford’s projections list Arizona vs. Virginia Tech in the Sun Bowl, Arizona State vs.
New Mexico in the Poinsettia Bowl, Cincinnati vs. Georgia State in the Cure Bowl, Houston vs.
Clemson in the Pop-Tarts Bowl, Kansas State vs. Nebraska in the Cactus Bowl, Oklahoma State vs.
Tulane in the Independence Bowl, Texas Tech vs. Tennessee in the Texas Bowl, UCF vs.
Kentucky in the Liberty Bowl, and West Virginia vs. UConn in the Armed Forces Bowl.
College Football News has Arizona vs. SMU in the Sun Bowl, Arizona State vs.
Boise State in the Poinsettia Bowl, Baylor vs. Nebraska in the Cactus Bowl, Cincinnati vs.
Duke in the Pop-Tarts Bowl, Houston vs. Navy in the Armed Forces Bowl, Kansas State vs.
Missouri in the Liberty Bowl, Oklahoma State vs. Tulane in the Independence Bowl, Texas Tech vs.
UCLA in the Alamo Bowl, UCF vs. East Carolina in the Boca Raton Bowl, and West Virginia vs.
Florida Atlantic in the Cure Bowl.
Athlon Sports rounds things out with Arizona vs. Virginia Tech in the Sun Bowl, Arizona State vs.
New Mexico in the New Mexico Bowl, Baylor vs. Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl, Cincinnati vs.
Tulane in the Independence Bowl, Houston vs. SMU in the Pop-Tarts Bowl, Kansas State vs.
Penn State in the Cactus Bowl, Oklahoma State vs. Texas A&M in the Texas Bowl, Texas Tech vs.
USC in the Alamo Bowl, and West Virginia vs. Oklahoma in the Liberty Bowl.
In Other News...
BYU Just Rewarded Key Staffers Behind Its Recent Rise
Kevin Young continued to reshape his staff this week by rewarding two key voices behind BYUs recent climb. Brandon Dunson has been elevated to associate head coach, while Jordan Brady was promoted to assistant coach and will keep his duties as Director of Player Development, a sign the program is leaning into the continuity that has helped fuel its surge in recent seasons.
Both coaches have played important roles in a stretch that has included NCAA Tournament appearances and a steady pipeline of player growth that has reached the NBA Draft. BYU also added seven new graduate assistants, giving Young even more depth around the program as the Cougars look ahead to the 2026-27 opener against Ohio State and the next step in the rise. [Read more 🡒]
BYU Has A Real Edge Friday But One Offensive Concern Lingers
BYU gets Iowa State at home Friday on a short week, and the setup tilts in the Cougars favor in more ways than one. Five of their final eight games are in Provo, and the matchups on paper point to a team that has leaned on its defense and efficiency in the biggest situations, especially with an ability to force quick punts and finish drives with touchdowns once it gets inside the red zone.
The concern is on the other side of the ball, where the offense still has to prove it can keep functioning if LJ Martin is not available. Iowa State has had trouble extending drives on third and fourth down and has also been leaky in the red zone, which creates an opening for BYU, but the Cougars still need a clear answer on how much production they can expect from the run game without their star back. [Read more 🡒]
BYU Heads Into Iowa State Showdown With Major Injury Concerns
The buildup to BYUs Week 6 trip to Iowa State has been shaped as much by the injury report as by the matchup itself. The Cougars are headed into a game that already carries plenty of Big 12 weight, but they will have to navigate it without running back LJ Martin and linebacker Isaiah Glasker, two key pieces on opposite sides of the ball.
Iowa State has its own holes to manage, with defenders Drew Surges, Caden Crawford and Ka'Mori Moore all sidelined. That leaves both staffs adjusting on the fly, and for BYU the question is how well the next men up can absorb the loss of proven production in a game where every small edge could matter. [Read more 🡒]