The Big 12 has been a league built on turnover, but Texas Tech may be the team that finally snaps the conference’s recent run of chaos. Six different programs have claimed the Big 12 Championship Game over the last six years, and the Red Raiders are the latest to get their hands on the trophy after a 34-7 win over BYU in last season’s finale.
Now they enter 2026 as the clear favorite to do it again.
Texas Tech is listed at -105 to win the Big 12, which gives it an implied probability of 51.22% to repeat as conference champion. That kind of price says plenty about how the market sees this race: the Red Raiders are the team to beat, and the gap between them and the rest of the field is real.
The biggest reason is defense. Texas Tech allowed just 12.2 points per game last season, the second-fewest mark in the nation behind only Ohio State.
Usually, a defense that strong loses enough pieces to create at least some regression, but Texas Tech brings back 65% of its production, the highest return rate in the Big 12. That gives the Red Raiders a sturdy foundation in a league where continuity matters.
There is still one major question hanging over the offense: quarterback. Brandon Sorsby won’t be available this season because of a gambling-related violation, so the job turns to Will Hammond, who is coming back from an ACL tear.
Even with that injury in the background, Hammond impressed in his eight appearances last season. If he’s not the answer, Texas Tech still has options around him, including running backs Cameron Dickey, J'Koby Williams, and Quentin Joyner.
If you’re looking for a team that could push Texas Tech, Houston stands out at +1500. The Cougars posted numbers last season that were stronger than most people probably realized, especially in EPA and success rate, and the program’s trajectory is moving the right way.
Houston jumped from 4-8 in 2024 to 10-3 in 2025, and it now returns the second-highest percentage of production in the Big 12. If that growth continues, the Cougars have a path into the conversation by season’s end.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
In Other News...
BYUs Newest Commit Brings Real Upside And One Freshman Hurdle
Dovydas Buika gives BYU something it can always use on the wing: a long, versatile piece with room to grow. The Lithuanian guard/wing has the kind of size and playmaking feel that can make a roster more dynamic, and he brings enough scoring ability to project as more than just a developmental add. For a program that likes to create matchup problems and keep multiple handlers on the floor, there is obvious appeal in a prospect who can do a little of everything.
The harder part for Buika is not whether he fits, but how quickly he can carve out a role in a crowded guard-wing rotation. His three-point shooting and physical strength remain areas to sharpen, which is hardly unusual for a young international prospect, but it does mean the path to freshman minutes will not be simple. BYU has options on the perimeter, and Buika may need time to turn the upside into something the staff can trust in live Big 12 play. [Read more 🡒]
BYU Freshman Legend Glasker Is Forcing His Way Into The Conversation
Through the first five days of BYUs 2026 training camp, freshman wide receiver Legend Glasker has done more than hold his own. The early returns have been strong enough to get coaches talking, with his speed, athleticism and grasp of the playbook helping him stand out in a group that is still taking shape. It has been a promising opening for a young player trying to carve out a role before the depth chart is even settled.
Glasker is part of a larger wave of newcomers the Cougars are trying to fold into the offense, along with tight ends Walker Lyons and Roger Saleapaga II, both of whom are expected to matter this season as well. For BYU, the bigger question is how quickly those pieces can become dependable options once the games start, but Glasker has already given the staff reason to believe he belongs in that conversation. [Read more 🡒]
Big 12 Coaches See One Defining Question For Bear Bachmeier
Bear Bachmeiers name showing up on ESPNs list of 43 top returning quarterbacks for the 2026 season is a good sign for BYU, even if the conversation around him is still more cautious than conclusive. College football analysts rounded up opinions from coaches and coordinators, and the takeaway was clear enough: Bachmeier has already earned attention for the skill set and development he showed, but he is still the kind of quarterback opposing staffs are studying closely to figure out what comes next.
Inside the Big 12, the debate around Bachmeier seems to come down to projection versus familiarity. Some coaches see a player ready to take a real step forward in 2026, while others believe the safer read is that he will look much like he did a season ago. For BYU, that split matters because it speaks to both the ceiling of the offense and how much uncertainty still surrounds a quarterback entering what should be a defining year. [Read more 🡒]