The Big 12 is heading into the 2026 season with a familiar problem: the league still has ground to make up on the sport’s biggest stages.
Over the first two years of the 12-team College Football Playoff, the conference has sent just two teams, and both were league champions. That leaves the Big 12 at 0-2 in the current format.
Zoom out to the CFP era that began in 2014, and the picture gets even starker. The Big 12 remains the only Power conference without a national title, while the Big Ten has four, the SEC has six and the ACC has two.
That backdrop makes ESPN’s first Football Power Index for 2026 worth a close look, because the numbers show just how steep the climb is for the Big 12.
Texas Tech sits as the league’s highest-ranked team at No. 10 with an FPI score of 20.0. BYU follows at No. 20 with 13.1, and then there’s a noticeable drop before Utah at No. 31 with 8.5.
Arizona checks in at No. 34, Houston at No.
35, Baylor at No. 37, TCU at No.
38, Kansas State at No. 41, Arizona State at No.
44, Colorado at No. 45, Cincinnati at No.
46, Oklahoma State at No. 54, Kansas at No.
55, UCF at No. 57, West Virginia at No. 66 and Iowa State at No.
The playoff projections tell the same story. ESPN’s model gives only three Big 12 teams better than a 10% shot at making the CFP: Texas Tech at 57.9%, BYU at 25.7% and Utah at 11.1%. Texas Tech, after winning the Big 12 a year ago and earning a bye to the CFP quarterfinals, lost 23-0 to Oregon in its playoff game.
When it comes to the conference title race, the model is even more concentrated than it was a year ago. Last season, five Big 12 teams entered with at least a 10% chance to win the league.
This time, only Texas Tech and BYU clear that bar, with the Red Raiders way out front at 45.9% and BYU next at 16.5%. Utah is third at 5.9%, followed by Arizona at 4.2%, Houston at 4.1% and TCU at 4.0%.
That kind of spread points to a league that could be top-heavy, even if the middle remains crowded. ESPN’s formula says only nine Big 12 teams have at least a 60% chance to reach bowl eligibility by winning six games.
Compared with the other power leagues, the Big 12’s footprint in the FPI is modest. It has only two teams in the top 25 and five more in the top 40.
The SEC, by contrast, has 12 teams in the top 25 and is led by four in the top 10: Texas at No. 2, Georgia at No.
5, Alabama at No. 8 and LSU at No. 9.
The Big Ten has seven teams in the top 25, including No. 1 Ohio State, plus Oregon at No. 4 and defending national champion Indiana at No.
- The ACC has three teams in the top 25, with Miami at No.
The gap shows up again in the playoff odds. The SEC has 12 teams with better than 10% odds to make the CFP, the Big Ten has seven and the ACC has four. The Big 12 has three.
Still, the league’s depth shows up in a different way. After Texas Tech and BYU, nine Big 12 teams are packed between No. 31 and No. 46, which is a pretty good snapshot of the conference’s balance. The SEC is the only power league with every member inside the top 50.
The Big Ten, despite its strength at the top, is the most top-heavy of the power conferences overall, with seven teams ranked from No. 60 to No. 71 after 10 landed in the top 39. The ACC has the two lowest-ranked power conference teams in Stanford at No. 80 and Boston College at No. 78, even though it also has eight teams in the top 36.
Big 12 teams will get 13 chances during the 2026 regular season to face other power conference opponents. Whether those games help the league close the gap is the next question.
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