BYU enters Week 6 with a perfect record and a shiny No. 8 ranking, but Friday night’s trip to face Iowa State feels like the kind of game that can either keep the Cougars on the fast track or drag them into a grinder. They’re still undefeated, still in the Big 12 race, and still trying to prove they belong in the playoff conversation. Iowa State, meanwhile, is 3-2 under Jimmy Rogers and coming off a narrow three-point win over West Virginia in Week 5.
The Cyclones have already taken their lumps against ranked opponents. They’re 0-2 in those games this season, falling to Iowa and Utah, and they’re a clear road underdog here. That’s not exactly surprising against a BYU team that has covered every game so far, even if the Cougars haven’t exactly run through the schedule looking dominant.
A lot of the spotlight sits on Bear Bachmeier. He’s accounted for 10 total scores in four games, with six coming through the air and four on the ground, but he hasn’t exactly forced his way into the Heisman conversation.
His passing numbers are modest - 704 yards and six touchdowns - and last week in ugly weather against TCU, he managed only 62 passing yards. Still, the dual-threat element matters.
Bachmeier has added 130 rushing yards and four touchdowns, and with running back LJ Martin leaving last week’s game with an injury, BYU may need even more from its quarterback on Friday.
That’s where the matchup starts to tilt toward the Cougars. BYU ranks third in EPA/Rush and first in rush success rate, while Iowa State has been vulnerable on the ground, checking in 95th in EPA/Rush allowed. The Cyclones’ defense is 53rd in adjusted EPA/Play overall, so they’re not a disaster, but the run defense has been the soft spot.
The total also points toward a lower-scoring game. Iowa State’s two losses to ranked teams both stayed under 48.5 points, and the Cyclones have gone under that number in three of five games this season.
BYU, for its part, produced just 27 total points in bad weather last week against TCU and also came up short of that line against Arizona. Last year’s meeting between these teams produced 68 points, but that was a different Iowa State group, with Matt Campbell coaching and Rocco Becht at quarterback.
On paper, BYU should have enough to stay unbeaten. The Cougars may very well cover again, but the safer lean here is the UNDER. Iowa State’s offense has been ordinary, ranking 61st in EPA/Play and 93rd in third/fourth down success rate, and BYU’s defense looks equipped to keep that side of the ball in check.
In Other News...
BYU-Notre Dame Just Became An Even Bigger Provo Event
BYUs October 17 showdown with Notre Dame already had the feel of a major moment, and the stage only got bigger with the latest details. The game is set for 5:30 p.m. Mountain Time at LaVell Edwards Stadium and will air on ABC, giving Provo a prime-time backdrop for a matchup between two undefeated teams both sitting inside the AP Top 10.
Its the first time the Irish and Cougars will meet in Provo with both programs ranked that high, which gives the night an added layer of weight beyond the usual nonconference intrigue. The meeting also fits into a two-game series, with BYU heading to Notre Dame in 2027, but for now the focus is on a rare ranked-on-ranked collision that should make October in Provo feel even bigger. [Read more 🡒]
BYU Looks Even More Dangerous Heading Into A Major UCF Test
BYUs upcoming trip to UCF is getting more attention after the Cougars kept showing up in the kind of games that make a September schedule feel heavier by the week. TCU pushed BYU all the way in a close loss, a result that adds to the sense that the Cougars are already battle-tested before they head to Orlando, especially with the numbers pointing to a team that can move the ball and avoid the kinds of mistakes that swing tight games.
Around the league, the teams on UCFs 2026 slate have offered their own snapshots of what the Knights may be walking into. Pittsburgh beat Virginia Tech even after losing starting quarterback Mason Heintschel to a torn ACL, while Baylor rolled past Arizona State in a more convincing showing, but BYUs combination of recent results, rankings and discipline in the key areas is what now gives this matchup its most interesting edge. [Read more 🡒]
BYU's TCU Win Came With A Concern Fans Can't Ignore
BYUs 17-10 win over TCU kept the Cougars unbeaten and reinforced the early momentum around a team that has opened 4-0 overall and 2-0 in Big 12 play. It was the kind of conference road result that can matter in October just as much as September, especially for a program trying to prove it can stack wins in its first stretch of league play.
Kalani Sitake had plenty to like in the aftermath, but the health of the roster lingered as the bigger concern. Several players came out of the game nicked up, including LJ Martin, Isaiah Glasker and Cannon DeVries, and BYU now turns its attention to a home game against Iowa State with the reality that the next step forward may depend as much on availability as on performance. [Read more 🡒]